FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · La Liga · Sun 16 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC

Celta Vigo
v Osasuna

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The model's read

Celta Vigo
42%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Osasuna
29%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Celta Vigo or draw71.3%
Double chance Osasuna or draw57.7%
Double chance either team71.0%
Over 1.5 goals73.1%
Over 2.5 goals46.3%
Over 3.5 goals24.8%
Both teams to score52.1%
Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals41.1%
Osasuna over 1.5 team goals30.8%
Celta Vigo clean sheet32.7%
Osasuna clean sheet24.5%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.8% · 1-0 10.0% · 0-0 9.3% · 2-1 8.9% · 2-0 7.9%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Recent form — Celta Vigo

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
23 MayW1-0Sevilla (H)1.6 - 0.8
17 MayD1-1Athletic Club (A)0.1 - 2.5
12 MayL2-3Levante (H)2.2 - 1.5
09 MayW1-0Atletico Madrid (A)0.1 - 2.2
03 MayW3-1Elche (H)1.1 - 1.7
26 AprL1-2Villarreal (A)2.1 - 1.7

Recent form — Osasuna

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
23 MayL0-1Getafe (A)0.5 - 0.2
17 MayL1-2Espanyol (H)1.7 - 0.8
12 MayL1-2Atletico Madrid (H)2.3 - 1.6
08 MayL2-3Levante (A)0.6 - 3.2
02 MayL1-2Barcelona (H)0.9 - 1.2
26 AprW2-1Sevilla (H)1.4 - 0.4

Chance quality, most recent season

Celta Vigo
+0.01
xG diff/game · 1.32 for, 1.31 against
Osasuna
-0.08
xG diff/game · 1.21 for, 1.29 against

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
06 Feb 26Celta Vigo1-2Osasuna
26 Oct 25Osasuna2-3Celta Vigo