1. FC Heidenheim 4–3 VfL Osnabrück
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–3; by chance quality the match ran 2.59–1.81.
The brain read
1. FC Heidenheim created the better chances — the xG read 2.6–1.8, with the shot count roughly even (20–22, 6–5 on target). 1. FC Heidenheim's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.6 xG, 6 of 20 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw | 1.16 | 80.9% |
| Double chance VfL Osnabrück or draw | 2.19 | 42.8% |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.3% |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.24 | 74.5% |
| Draw no bet — VfL Osnabrück | 3.63 | 25.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 56.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.62 | 35.6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 55.7% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.61 | 57.8% |
| VfL Osnabrück over 1.5 team goals | 3.31 | 28.1% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% |
| VfL Osnabrück clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.04 · 2-1 7.40 · 1-0 7.57 · 2-0 8.21 · 3-1 11.50
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-08 13:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off.