What we got wrong
The week's misses, in full.
Every call the model got wrong in the last 7 days — the percentage it quoted, the price, and what actually happened. Wins are further down. Nothing is removed, nothing is reworded after the result. Window: Wed 09 Sep – Wed 16 Sep 2026, updated every build.
Fixtures read right
4 of 12
one losing call marks the whole fixture wrong
Losing calls
8
listed below, in full
Winning calls
4
several can settle on one match
Reference P/L
-2.21u
1-unit reference — £0 actually staked
The misses
The one we were most wrong about: the model gave 73% to Osasuna, draw no bet in Osasuna v Espanyol (finished 0-2). It was wrong. That number is part of the record now — see how often the model's percentages match reality on the calibration page.
| Date | Fixture | The call | Odds | Model said | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 12 Sep | Osasuna v Espanyol | Osasuna, draw no bet | 1.55 | 73% | 0-2 |
| Fri 11 Sep | West Ham v Wrexham | West Ham under 1.5 goals | 2.25 | 62% | 6-0 |
| Sun 13 Sep | Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid | Real Sociedad, draw no bet | 2.11 | 61% | 0-3 |
| Sat 12 Sep | Sunderland v Arsenal | Sunderland or the draw | 2.36 | 56% | 0-2 |
| Sun 13 Sep | Manchester United v Manchester City | Manchester United, draw no bet | 2.26 | 56% | 0-1 |
| Mon 14 Sep | Torino v AS Roma | Torino or the draw | 2.38 | 52% | 0-2 |
| Sun 13 Sep | RB Leipzig v Hamburger SV | Hamburger SV or the draw | 3.16 | 43% | 5-0 |
| Sun 13 Sep | Napoli v Bologna | Bologna, draw no bet | 3.57 | 42% | 1-0 |
What went right
| Date | Fixture | The call | Odds | Model said | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 15 Sep | Bristol City v Lincoln | Lincoln, draw no bet | 2.57 | 53% | 0-1 |
| Tue 15 Sep | Middlesbrough v Millwall | Millwall or the draw | 2.62 | 49% | 2-2 |
| Sat 12 Sep | Atalanta v Cagliari | Cagliari or the draw | 2.30 | 56% | 1-2 |
| Sat 12 Sep | Athletic Club v Elche | Athletic Club under 1.5 goals | 2.30 | 54% | 1-1 |
2 calls settled void or push — counted as neither.
A scoreline read is one opinion — several calls on the same match settle together. The running totals live on the record; whether the model's percentages mean anything is measured on calibration. £0 staked all season.