What we got wrong
The week's misses, in full.
Every call the model got wrong in the last 7 days — the percentage it quoted, the price, and what actually happened. Wins are further down. Nothing is removed, nothing is reworded after the result. Window: Tue 27 Oct – Tue 03 Nov 2026, updated every build.
Fixtures read right
8 of 23
one losing call marks the whole fixture wrong
Losing calls
15
listed below, in full
Winning calls
8
several can settle on one match
Reference P/L
-6.66u
1-unit reference — £0 actually staked
The misses
The one we were most wrong about: the model gave 75% to FSV Mainz 05, draw no bet in SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 (finished 4-1). It was wrong. That number is part of the record now — see how often the model's percentages match reality on the calibration page.
| Date | Fixture | The call | Odds | Model said | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05 | FSV Mainz 05, draw no bet | 1.55 | 75% | 4-1 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Barcelona v Alaves | Barcelona under 3.5 goals | 1.72 | 72% | 6-1 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Estac Troyes v Le Mans | Le Mans, draw no bet | 2.17 | 67% | 2-0 |
| Sun 01 Nov | Marseille v Toulouse | Toulouse, draw no bet | 2.73 | 63% | 2-0 |
| Sun 01 Nov | Racing Santander v Real Madrid | Real Madrid under 2.5 goals | 2.45 | 58% | 0-3 |
| Wed 28 Oct | Genoa v Juventus | Genoa under 0.5 goals | 2.11 | 58% | 2-0 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Brentford v Nottingham Forest | Nottingham Forest, draw no bet | 2.55 | 57% | 2-0 |
| Sun 01 Nov | Frosinone v Torino | Torino, draw no bet | 2.19 | 55% | 2-0 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Tottenham v Crystal Palace | Tottenham under 1.5 goals | 2.29 | 54% | 2-0 |
| Tue 27 Oct | Sassuolo v Lazio | Sassuolo, draw no bet | 2.33 | 54% | 2-6 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Stoke City v Preston | Preston, draw no bet | 3.32 | 53% | 2-0 |
| Sun 01 Nov | Strasbourg v Auxerre | Auxerre, draw no bet | 2.92 | 49% | 5-1 |
| Thu 29 Oct | Frosinone v Lecce | Lecce, draw no bet | 3.29 | 47% | 5-1 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Chelsea v Manchester United | Manchester United, draw no bet | 3.05 | 44% | 2-0 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Levante v Atletico Madrid | Levante over 1.5 goals | 3.02 | 43% | 0-2 |
What went right
| Date | Fixture | The call | Odds | Model said | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 01 Nov | Liverpool v Arsenal | Arsenal, draw no bet | 1.65 | 71% | 0-1 |
| Sun 01 Nov | Lazio v Cagliari | Cagliari over 0.5 goals | 1.78 | 68% | 2-1 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Udinese v AS Roma | AS Roma winning | 1.57 | 75% | 2-5 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo | Rayo Vallecano, draw no bet | 1.66 | 75% | 3-0 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Manchester City v Brighton | Brighton, draw no bet | 3.52 | 42% | 0-1 |
| Sat 31 Oct | Bournemouth v Leeds | Bournemouth winning | 2.10 | 58% | 2-0 |
| Fri 30 Oct | Villarreal v Espanyol | under 3.5 goals | 1.75 | 68% | 0-1 |
| Wed 28 Oct | AC Milan v Bologna | Bologna or the draw | 2.31 | 55% | 2-4 |
3 calls settled void or push — counted as neither.
A scoreline read is one opinion — several calls on the same match settle together. The running totals live on the record; whether the model's percentages mean anything is measured on calibration. £0 staked all season.