FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Calibration

We publish whether our
probabilities were any good.

The record page tracks the calls. This page tracks every probability the model publishes — scored after the fact, in public, wins and misses alike.

How this page cannot cheat

Every probability here was written to an append-only log before kick-off, from the ratings as they stood at that moment. Nothing is recomputed after results are known — recomputing would smuggle the answer into the question. Where several pre-match snapshots exist, the last one before kick-off is the one judged. The markets measured (match result, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score) and the 50 settled-prediction threshold were fixed before any data existed and do not move mid-season.

Collecting, honestly

Not enough settled predictions yet to say anything meaningful — the table switches on at 50 settled predictions, a bar set before the season started. So far: 0 probabilities logged, 0 settled, 0 awaiting results.
A calibration page with ten data points would be theatre. This one stays honest by staying empty until the sample can carry the claim.