Draw Radar
Nobody backs the draw.
It's the one we read best.
The draw is the result punters avoid and bookmakers price loosest — and it is our model's best-calibrated market, by a distance (the proof). So here are the upcoming matches the model rates likeliest to end level, its draw probability against the market's. Not tips — a lean into the one thing the model demonstrably does well.
| Kick-off | Fixture | League | Model draw % | Market draw % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20 Sep 14:00 | Parma v Genoa | Serie A | 31% | — |
| Sat 19 Sep 15:00 | Portsmouth v Blackburn | Championship | 31% | 28% |
| Sat 19 Sep 16:15 | Sampdoria v Catanzaro | Serie B | 30% | 29% |
| Sat 19 Sep 14:00 | Bologna v Torino | Serie A | 30% | 27% |
| Sun 20 Sep 18:30 | Modena v Empoli | Serie B | 30% | — |
| Sat 19 Sep 15:15 | Athletic Club v Alaves | La Liga | 30% | 25% |
| Sat 19 Sep 14:00 | Udinese v Cagliari | Serie A | 29% | 29% |
| Sat 19 Sep 15:00 | Wrexham v Southampton | Championship | 29% | 27% |
| Sun 20 Sep 11:30 | Fiorentina v Napoli | Serie A | 29% | — |
| Sat 19 Sep 12:30 | Tottenham v Aston Villa | Premier League | 29% | 27% |
| Fri 18 Sep 19:30 | Juve Stabia v Cesena | Serie B | 29% | 29% |
| Fri 18 Sep 20:00 | Bristol City v Watford | Championship | 29% | 26% |
| Sat 19 Sep 15:00 | Brighton v Arsenal | Premier League | 29% | 24% |
| Sat 19 Sep 15:00 | Birmingham v Middlesbrough | Championship | 29% | 27% |
| Sat 19 Sep 12:30 | Cardiff v Charlton | Championship | 29% | 23% |
Read it honestly. A high
draw probability is not a bet — the draw being the model's sharpest market
means its numbers here are worth respecting, not that they win money. The model has
no profit edge; the honest record, losses included, is on
the record. Nothing here is staked.
18+ · Betting carries risk · No guaranteed profit · National Gambling Helpline 0808 8020 133
18+ · Betting carries risk · No guaranteed profit · National Gambling Helpline 0808 8020 133