Portsmouth
v Swansea
← Back to the Tue 03 Nov board
On the record: Portsmouth under 1.5 goals @ 1.61 — provisional — it counts only if it still clears the pick test once the line-ups are in. Paper only, nothing staked.
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 31% | 36% | -4 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Swansea | 38% | 36% | +2 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 0-0 10.9% · 0-1 10.6% · 1-0 9.3% · 1-2 8.2%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.45 | 64.4% | +0.5 pts | 61.8% | -2.6 |
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.46 | 64.2% | +0.8 pts | 68.8% | +4.6 |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.4% | -1.3 pts | 69.4% | -2.0 |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.87 | 49.6% | -0.6 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 1.84 | 50.4% | +0.6 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.5% | -3.6 pts | 69.2% | -2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 47.4% | -5.1 pts | 41.5% | -5.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.39 | 27.4% | -4.6 pts | 20.9% | -6.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.74 | 53.5% | -3.7 pts | 48.8% | -4.8 |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.48 | 37.6% | -4.6 pts | 30.1% | -7.5 |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.46 | 37.9% | -3.8 pts | 35.3% | -2.6 |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts | 28.9% | +1.2 |
| Swansea clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts | 33.3% | +5.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.06 · 0-1 8.09 · 1-0 8.32 · 0-0 9.06 · 1-2 9.41
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Portsmouth under 1.0 goals at 2.23 — model 53%, market 42% (margin removed): a 12-point gap.
- under 2.5 goals at 1.79 — model 59%, market 53% (margin removed): a 6-point gap.
- Swansea keeping a clean sheet at 3.40 — model 34%, market 28% (margin removed): a 6-point gap.
5 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Portsmouth: 6 recorded — K. Anderson (Missing Fixture), B. Arthur (Missing Fixture), C. Bishop (Missing Fixture), L. Brooke-Smith (Missing Fixture), C. Ogilvie (Missing Fixture), J. Swift (Missing Fixture)
Swansea: 3 recorded — C. Burgess (Missing Fixture), Ronald (Missing Fixture), M. K. Yeo (Missing Fixture)
Rotation risk — Portsmouth: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Swansea: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Portsmouth
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 5 league games (W3 D2).
Swansea
- 5 of Swansea's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- N. Schmid has made 19 saves in 13 league games this season.
- M. Milovanović has scored 3 goals in 11 league games this season.
- T. Devlin has scored 2 goals in 13 league games this season.
- L. Vigouroux has made 28 saves in 13 league games this season.
- A. Idah has scored 4 goals in 13 league games this season.
- M. Yeo has scored 3 goals in 11 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Portsmouth
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | D | 0-0 | Burnley (A) | 0.3 - 1.8 |
| 24 Oct | W | 2-1 | Millwall (H) | 0.9 - 0.7 |
| 20 Oct | D | 1-1 | Wolves (A) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
| 17 Oct | W | 1-0 | Norwich (A) | 1.2 - 0.4 |
| 14 Oct | W | 3-2 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 2.2 - 2.0 |
| 11 Oct | L | 0-1 | Southampton (A) | 0.8 - 1.4 |
Swansea
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 4-0 | Blackburn (H) | 2.4 - 0.4 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-5 | QPR (A) | 0.3 - 3.3 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-1 | West Ham (H) | 1.1 - 1.2 |
| 13 Oct | W | 1-0 | Millwall (A) | 1.0 - 1.1 |
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Norwich (H) | 2.2 - 0.7 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Lincoln (A) | 0.9 - 2.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | Championship | 2026/27 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 1.462 | 16–15 | DWDWW |
| Swansea | Championship | 2026/27 | 2 | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 20–13 | WLLWW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1 |
| Swansea | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 4-0-2 | 1.5 / 1.7 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 1 wins, 1 draws, Swansea 2 wins — 3.0 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 26 | Portsmouth | 1-2 | Swansea |
| 09 Dec 25 | Swansea | 1-0 | Portsmouth |