Championship
The Championship through our xG model: the table underneath the table, our honest record on it, who plays next, and who is in form. Rebuilt from live data twice an hour. Not tips — a public test. This season.
xG ratings — the table underneath the table
Ranked by chance quality (xG difference per match), not by results. Every column sorts; hover a header for what it means.
On chance quality alone, Middlesbrough were the best side here (+0.96 xG difference per game). Southampton scored +4.9 goals more than their chances were worth, the biggest gap in the division. West Brom collected +6.5 points more than those chances deserved. Gaps like that usually shrink over time, which is why sides at the top of them often fall away.
| # | Team | Pld | W-D-L | Pts | xPts | Pts +/- | GF | GA | xGF/g | xGA/g | xG diff | G vs xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 3-1-1 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 5 | 1.81 | 0.85 | +0.96 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Norwich | 6 | 3-0-3 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 9 | 1.90 | 1.24 | +0.66 | -1.4 |
| 3 | West Ham | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 13 | 8 | 1.74 | 1.10 | +0.63 | +2.6 |
| 4 | Swansea | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 4 | 1.44 | 0.82 | +0.61 | -0.6 |
| 5 | Wolves | 5 | 2-2-1 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 13 | 10 | 1.63 | 1.05 | +0.59 | +4.8 |
| 6 | Millwall | 5 | 3-0-2 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 8 | 1.85 | 1.37 | +0.47 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Preston | 6 | 1-0-5 | 3 | 9.2 | -6.2 | 6 | 12 | 1.47 | 1.09 | +0.38 | -2.8 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 5 | 1-2-2 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 6 | 1.55 | 1.17 | +0.38 | -3.8 |
| 9 | QPR | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 4 | 1.35 | 1.08 | +0.27 | -1.1 |
| 10 | Southampton | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | 14 | 7 | 1.51 | 1.29 | +0.22 | +4.9 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 6 | 1-4-1 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 7 | 5 | 1.10 | 0.90 | +0.19 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 6 | 1-4-1 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 8 | 1.29 | 1.16 | +0.13 | +0.3 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 6 | 0-4-2 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 10 | 1.61 | 1.50 | +0.11 | -2.6 |
| 14 | Portsmouth | 5 | 2-0-3 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 8 | 1.38 | 1.33 | +0.05 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Burnley | 6 | 0-3-3 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | 7 | 13 | 1.17 | 1.45 | -0.28 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Bolton | 6 | 1-1-4 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 12 | 1.24 | 1.62 | -0.38 | -1.5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 5 | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 7 | 1.03 | 1.44 | -0.40 | +3.8 |
| 18 | Blackburn | 6 | 1-2-3 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 9 | 0.88 | 1.33 | -0.45 | +1.7 |
| 19 | Charlton | 6 | 3-2-1 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 | 5 | 6 | 0.60 | 1.07 | -0.46 | +1.4 |
| 20 | West Brom | 6 | 4-1-1 | 13 | 6.5 | +6.5 | 9 | 6 | 1.08 | 1.55 | -0.47 | +2.5 |
| 21 | Watford | 6 | 2-2-2 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 7 | 1.03 | 1.61 | -0.59 | -0.2 |
| 22 | Stoke City | 6 | 2-1-3 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 10 | 0.85 | 1.47 | -0.62 | +3.9 |
| 23 | Sheffield Utd | 6 | 2-3-1 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 8 | 0.95 | 1.63 | -0.67 | +2.3 |
| 24 | Derby | 6 | 1-1-4 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 11 | 0.83 | 1.80 | -0.98 | +0.0 |
What each column means
- Pld — Matches played
- W-D-L — Wins, draws and losses
- Pts — Actual league points won
- xPts — Expected points — what the chances created and conceded in each match were worth, run through the same model as the rest of the site
- Pts +/- — Actual points minus expected points. Positive means they took more from their chances than the chances deserved — finishing, goalkeeping, or luck
- GF — Goals scored
- GA — Goals conceded
- xGF/g — Expected goals created per match — the quality of chances they made
- xGA/g — Expected goals conceded per match — the quality of chances they allowed
- xG diff — xGF/g minus xGA/g. The honest measure of how good a side has been, regardless of results
- G vs xG — Goals scored minus expected goals. A big positive means clinical finishing or good luck, and it usually drifts back to zero
Our record on the Championship
5 of 8 fixtures the model called here have read right so far, on 5–3 (1v) settled calls. CLV (did it beat the closing price?) -3.18% (n=7); reference P/L +4.51u. Small sample — the full record has the lot.
Coming up
- Bristol City v Watford — Fri 18 Sep · 20:00
- Cardiff v Charlton — Sat 19 Sep · 12:30
- Millwall v West Ham — Sat 19 Sep · 12:30
- Stoke City v Sheffield Utd — Sat 19 Sep · 12:30
- Burnley v Derby — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
- Birmingham v Middlesbrough — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
- QPR v Preston — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
- Portsmouth v Blackburn — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
- Lincoln v Swansea — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
- Wrexham v Southampton — Sat 19 Sep · 15:00
Each fixture page carries the model’s full market read. The whole board →
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström (Derby) has made 28 saves in 7 league games this season. — next: v Burnley · Sat 19 Sep
- G. Wickens (Lincoln) has made 26 saves in 7 league games this season. — next: v Swansea · Sat 19 Sep
This season, league games only. Match ratings are the data provider’s, not our model. Descriptive, not predictive.