QPR
v Burnley
← Back to the Tue 03 Nov board
On the record: QPR, draw no bet @ 1.50 — provisional — it counts only if it still clears the pick test once the line-ups are in. Paper only, nothing staked.
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | -1 |
| Burnley | 20% | 27% | -7 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 11.5% · 2-1 9.9% · 2-0 9.3% · 1-0 8.8% · 0-0 6.3%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance QPR or draw | 1.29 | 72.4% | +1.2 pts | 80.0% | +7.6 |
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.75 | 53.6% | -0.4 pts | 44.4% | -9.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.0% | -0.7 pts | 75.6% | +1.6 |
| Draw no bet — QPR | 1.49 | 62.3% | +0.3 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 2.46 | 37.7% | -0.3 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 77.7% | -0.3 pts | 80.4% | +2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | 56.6% | -0.8 pts | 56.6% | -0.0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.61 | 35.7% | -1.0 pts | 34.2% | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 59.7% | -0.3 pts | 56.6% | -3.1 |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 1.83 | 50.9% | -0.4 pts | 56.3% | +5.4 |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 2.51 | 37.1% | -1.9 pts | 28.7% | -8.4 |
| QPR clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts | 34.6% | +7.8 |
| Burnley clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts | 15.1% | -3.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.80 · 2-1 8.37 · 1-0 9.15 · 1-2 10.82 · 2-0 11.25
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Burnley under 1.0 goals at 2.12 — model 55%, market 44% (margin removed): a 11-point gap.
- QPR -1 on the Asian handicap at 2.82 — model 42%, market 33% (margin removed): a 9-point gap.
- QPR winning at 2.01 — model 55%, market 47% (margin removed): a 8-point gap.
5 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
QPR: 4 recorded — R. Burrell (Missing Fixture), T. Lamptey (Missing Fixture), N. Madsen (Missing Fixture), A. S. Mbengue (Missing Fixture)
Burnley: 10 recorded — Z. Amdouni (Missing Fixture), B. Amos (Missing Fixture), J. Beyer (Missing Fixture), J. Bruun Larsen (Missing Fixture), B. Humphreys (Missing Fixture), H. Mejbri (Missing Fixture), M. Obafemi (Missing Fixture), S. Sambo (Missing Fixture)
Rotation risk — QPR: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Burnley: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
QPR
- QPR have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Burnley
- Burnley are winless in their last 4 league games (D2 L2).
- 5 of Burnley's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- P. Charles has made 37 saves in 13 league games this season.
- R. Kone has scored 4 goals in 10 league games this season.
- J. Dunne has scored 3 goals in 12 league games this season.
- Z. Amdouni has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
- G. Coudert has made 19 saves in 12 league games this season.
- M. Weiß has made 16 saves in 13 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
QPR
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-4 | Southampton (A) | 0.8 - 1.2 |
| 24 Oct | W | 5-0 | Swansea (H) | 3.3 - 0.3 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-3 | Birmingham (A) | 1.2 - 1.3 |
| 14 Oct | W | 4-1 | Derby (H) | 1.6 - 0.9 |
| 09 Oct | D | 1-1 | West Ham (A) | 1.2 - 1.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Preston (H) | 2.5 - 1.5 |
Burnley
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | D | 0-0 | Portsmouth (H) | 1.8 - 0.3 |
| 24 Oct | L | 1-4 | Lincoln (A) | 2.4 - 1.9 |
| 16 Oct | L | 1-2 | Wolves (H) | 1.0 - 1.9 |
| 13 Oct | D | 2-2 | Charlton (H) | 1.1 - 2.1 |
| 10 Oct | W | 4-0 | Watford (A) | 1.9 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Derby (H) | 0.5 - 1.8 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | Championship | 2026/27 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 1.538 | 21–16 | LWLWD |
| Burnley | Championship | 2026/27 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 0.692 | 17–25 | DLLDW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-2-1 | 2.2 / 0.8 | 2 |
| Burnley | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 1-1-4 | 1.5 / 2.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: QPR 2 wins, 3 draws, Burnley 5 wins — 2.5 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.