FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
The luck table

When the result lied.

The most recent round, 07 Sep–14 Sep: who created the better chances (xG) and who actually took the points. When a side clearly out-created its opponent and still didn’t win, the result defied the xG — flagged below. Six full-xG leagues, finished games only.

“Luck” is shorthand. A result can beat the xG through sharp finishing, a keeper’s blinder or plain variance — not only fortune, and one game proves nothing. These are raw match xG, not the league-normalised ratings, so a big gap here is about a single afternoon, not team quality. The model’s own calls and how they settle are on the record. Nothing here is a tip.
Biggest gap this round. Cardiff out-created Stoke City 2.9–0.8 but drew.

The round the xG disagreed with

10 of 29 finished top-flight matches ran against the balance of chances, biggest gap first. The xG favourite is in bold.

MatchLeagueScorexG (h–a)What happened
Cardiff v Stoke CityChampionship1–12.9–0.8Cardiff out-created Stoke City 2.9–0.8 but drew. Cardiff held
Elche v Real SociedadLa Liga2–32.5–0.6Elche out-created Real Sociedad 2.5–0.6 but lost. Elche robbed Real Sociedad smash & grab
Lecce v MonzaSerie A3–21.1–2.7Monza out-created Lecce 2.7–1.1 but lost. Monza robbed Lecce smash & grab
Celta Vigo v MalagaLa Liga1–11.9–0.4Celta Vigo out-created Malaga 1.9–0.4 but drew. Celta Vigo held
Watford v PrestonChampionship2–11.3–2.4Preston out-created Watford 2.4–1.3 but lost. Preston robbed Watford smash & grab
Blackburn v Sheffield UtdChampionship1–21.6–0.5Blackburn out-created Sheffield Utd 1.6–0.5 but lost. Blackburn robbed Sheffield Utd smash & grab
Lazio v AC MilanSerie A2–22.0–1.1Lazio out-created AC Milan 2.0–1.1 but drew. Lazio held
Derby v West BromChampionship0–11.3–0.4Derby out-created West Brom 1.3–0.4 but lost. Derby robbed West Brom smash & grab
Charlton v QPRChampionship0–00.5–1.1QPR out-created Charlton 1.1–0.5 but drew. QPR held
Norwich v BirminghamChampionship2–11.0–1.6Birmingham out-created Norwich 1.6–1.0 but lost. Birmingham robbed Norwich smash & grab
The other 19 match(es) followed the chances
MatchLeagueScorexG (h–a)What happened
Venezia v FiorentinaSerie A2–40.7–3.4Result followed the chances.
Inter v UdineseSerie A5–33.1–0.8Result followed the chances.
Como v ParmaSerie A2–13.2–1.2Result followed the chances.
Real Sociedad v Atletico MadridLa Liga0–30.3–2.0Result followed the chances.
Villarreal v Real BetisLa Liga1–21.9–3.5Result followed the chances.
Napoli v BolognaSerie A1–01.8–0.2Result followed the chances.
Real Madrid v Rayo VallecanoLa Liga4–12.6–1.2Result followed the chances.
Torino v AS RomaSerie A0–20.8–1.9Result followed the chances.
Sevilla v ValenciaLa Liga1–00.9–0.1Result followed the chances.
Bolton v West HamChampionship2–31.6–2.2Result followed the chances.
Osasuna v EspanyolLa Liga0–21.1–1.4Result followed the chances.
Sassuolo v JuventusSerie A3–20.7–1.0Result followed the chances.
Southampton v SwanseaChampionship3–11.4–1.2Result followed the chances.
Wrexham v BurnleyChampionship1–11.3–1.5Result followed the chances.
Levante v BarcelonaLa Liga2–42.4–2.6Result followed the chances.
Atalanta v CagliariSerie A1–21.2–1.1Result followed the chances.
Getafe v Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga1–10.8–0.9Result followed the chances.
Racing Santander v AlavesLa Liga2–12.0–2.0Result followed the chances.
Genoa v FrosinoneSerie A1–11.9–1.9Result followed the chances.

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Chances warranted, not goals guaranteed. Over a season these gaps mostly wash out — which is the whole point of watching them.

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