Getafe 3–1 Sevilla
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.62–0.74.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Sevilla to win (42%); it finished with Getafe to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 23% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 1.6–0.7 in Getafe's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 11–12 overall and 5–4 on target went Sevilla's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Sevilla got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 6). Getafe's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.6 xG, 5 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Getafe 4-2-3-1
- 2 D. Dakonam (D)
- 8 N. Gudelj (M)
- 10 M. Satriano (M)
- 11 Ramón Terrats (M)
- 13 David Soria (G)
- 14 Daniel Carvajal (D)
- 15 S. Boselli (D)
- 16 Francho Serrano (M)
- 19 E. Ünal (F)
- 21 Andrés García (M)
- 26 J. Valou (D)
Bench: A. Abqar, Iván Azón, Davinchi, Diego Ferrer, Kiko Femenía, J. Letáček, O. Mangala, Borja Mayoral, Alberto Risco, S. Sazonov
Sevilla 4-4-2
- 1 O. Vlachodimos (G)
- 2 Juan Iglesias (D)
- 4 Kike Salas (D)
- 5 Andrés Castrín (D)
- 6 L. Agoumé (M)
- 16 Isaac (F)
- 17 G. Suazo (D)
- 19 L. Stassin (F)
- 20 Félix Correia (M)
- 21 C. Ejuke (M)
- 24 Y. Fofana (M)
Bench: R. Vargas, R. Ure, A. Sangante, Peque Fernández, G. Kochorashvili, Jon Guridi, Alfon González, Fran González, Julio Díaz del Romo, José Ángel Carmona, Manu Bueno, Fábio Cardoso
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Getafe or draw | 1.55 | 60.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 1.34 | 70.3% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.37 | 68.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Getafe | 2.19 | 42.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sevilla | 1.64 | 57.2% | +1.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.56 | 61.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.65 | 35.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5.36 | 17.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.15 | 43.3% | +0.2 pts |
| Getafe over 1.5 team goals | 3.70 | 25.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 2.85 | 32.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Getafe clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 5.70 · 1-1 5.71 · 0-0 6.21 · 1-0 6.85 · 1-2 9.86
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 12:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 26 | Getafe | 0-1 | Sevilla |
| 25 Aug 25 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Getafe |