Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.97–1.42.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Athletic Club to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 55% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
The xG read 3–1.4 in Athletic Club's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 13–14 overall and 3–5 on target went Real Sociedad's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Real Sociedad held 62% of the ball. Athletic Club's finishing let them down — 2 from 3 xG despite 3 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón (G)
- 3 Dani Vivian (D)
- 7 Álex Berenguer (M)
- 9 I. Williams (M)
- 10 Nico Williams (M)
- 14 Aymeric Laporte (D)
- 15 Hugo Rincón (D)
- 17 Yuri (D)
- 21 Maroan Sannadi (F)
- 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena (M)
- 28 Peio Canales (M)
Bench: Álex Padilla, Robert Navarro, J. Louis-Jean, Mikel Jauregizar, Beñat Prados, Alejandro Rego, Oihan Sancet, Aitor Paredes, Nico Serrano, Jesús Vizcay Hurtado, Yeray, Jesús Areso
Real Sociedad 4-4-2
- 1 Álex Remiro (G)
- 2 J. Aramburu (D)
- 4 Jon Gorrotxategi (M)
- 6 Jon Martín (D)
- 7 Barrenetxea (M)
- 10 Mikel Oyarzabal (F)
- 11 Gonçalo Guedes (M)
- 17 Sergio Gómez (D)
- 18 Carlos Soler (M)
- 19 M. Sarr (D)
- 24 L. Sučić (F)
Bench: Héctor Fort, Aitor Fraga, Y. Herrera, T. Kubo, Unai Marrero, Pablo Marín, Aihen Muñoz, J. Ochieng, Jon Pacheco, Beñat Turrientes, Zubeldia, O. Óskarsson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.28 | 73.7% | +2.4 pts |
| Double chance Real Sociedad or draw | 1.80 | 52.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.47 | 63.9% | +2.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Sociedad | 2.59 | 36.1% | -2.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.8% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | 53.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.92 | 32.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.64 | 56.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.89 | 49.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 team goals | 2.80 | 33.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +6.1 pts |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.57 · 1-0 7.94 · 2-1 8.14 · 2-0 10.13 · 0-1 11.17
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 19:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 26 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Real Sociedad |
| 01 Nov 25 | Real Sociedad | 3-2 | Athletic Club |