Lorient 0–2 Stade Brestois 29
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.66–1.24.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Lorient to win (36%); it finished with Stade Brestois 29 to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lorient created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–1.2, with the shot count roughly even (15–12, 0–4 on target). Lorient got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 6). Lorient's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.7 xG despite 0 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–2 flatters Stade Brestois 29 — on chances created, Lorient shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lorient 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Talbi (D)
- 8 N. Cadiou (M)
- 17 J. Makengo (M)
- 18 I. Baldé (F)
- 19 S. Faye (M)
- 20 D. Sylla (M)
- 32 N. Adjei (D)
- 38 Y. Mvogo (G)
- 43 K. Kouassi (M)
- 62 A. Avom (M)
- 95 S. Touré (D)
Bench: A. Tosin, S. Kuzmić, T. Le Bris, N. Mbamba, N. Obaretin, I. Jensen, A. Georgen, G. Bernardeau, B. Kamara
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik (G)
- 2 B. Locko (D)
- 4 G. Lloris (D)
- 8 H. Magnetti (M)
- 9 P. Mboup (M)
- 13 J. Chotard (M)
- 17 Mama Baldé (M)
- 19 L. Ajorque (F)
- 23 K. Doumbia (M)
- 29 L. Tousart (D)
- 70 K. Lala (D)
Bench: D. N´Guessan, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, N. Edjouma, M. Diambou, J. Bourgault, J. Nonge Boende, M. Patouillet
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 1.38 | 68.5% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 1.55 | 61.2% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lorient | 1.69 | 55.1% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stade Brestois 29 | 2.07 | 44.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 69.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 44.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.86 | 24.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 51.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 2.48 | 38.0% | -2.4 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 2.84 | 33.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Lorient clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +4.7 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.84 · 1-0 7.16 · 0-0 8.07 · 0-1 8.20 · 2-1 9.25
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 19:35 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb 26 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2-0 | Lorient |
| 19 Oct 25 | Lorient | 3-3 | Stade Brestois 29 |