Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Celta Vigo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.13–1.26.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 56% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1.3, shots 14–11 with 8–0 on target. Rayo Vallecano's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.1 xG, 8 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3
- 2 A. Rațiu (D)
- 4 Pedro Díaz (M)
- 8 Unai López (M)
- 10 Sergio Camello (F)
- 15 Mujaid Sadick (D)
- 17 Adrià Pedrosa (D)
- 18 Álvaro García (F)
- 19 Jorge de Frutos (F)
- 23 Óscar Valentín (M)
- 24 F. Lejeune (D)
- 25 E. Audero (G)
Bench: I. Balliu, Rayane Belid, Alemão, G. Bouare, Dani Cárdenas, Pelayo Fernández, R. Nteka, Isi Palazón, Fran Pérez, G. Tsitaishvili, J. Vertrouwd
Celta Vigo 3-4-3
- 6 I. Moriba (M)
- 9 Ferran Jutglà (F)
- 13 I. Radu (G)
- 14 Aleix Febas (M)
- 16 Hugo González (F)
- 17 Javi Rueda (M)
- 18 Yoel Lago (D)
- 20 Javi Rodríguez (D)
- 21 S. Cáceres (D)
- 22 Javi Galán (M)
- 23 Hugo Álvarez (F)
Bench: Marcos Alonso, Andrés Antañón, Iago Aspas, A. Bayındır, H. Burcio, Sergio Carreira, C. Driouech, Pablo Durán, A. Faye, W. Swedberg, Iván Villar
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 1.38 | 68.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.54 | 61.2% | +1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Rayo Vallecano | 1.72 | 54.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 2.04 | 45.7% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.80 | 24.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 51.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 2.51 | 37.4% | -2.2 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 2.89 | 32.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.78 · 1-0 7.19 · 0-1 7.95 · 0-0 8.39 · 2-1 9.18
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 15:05 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 26 | Celta Vigo | 3-0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 21 Sep 25 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Celta Vigo |