Norwich 3–2 Watford
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.19–1.00.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Norwich to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 58% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1, shots 15–8 with 5–5 on target. Norwich got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 4). Norwich's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.2 xG, 5 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Norwich 4-2-3-1
- 3 J. Stacey (D)
- 11 A. Brooks (M)
- 14 B. Chrisene (D)
- 15 Ruairi McConville (D)
- 16 Jacob Wright (M)
- 25 P. Maghoma (M)
- 26 S. Field (M)
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden (F)
- 32 D. Grimshaw (G)
- 33 J. Córdoba (D)
- 49 A. Musaba (M)
Bench: A. Crnac, H. Darling, K. Fisher, V. Kovačević, L. Mahovo, J. Makama, A. Ben Slimane, M. Topić, D. Yongwa
Watford 5-3-2
- 1 F. Ravaglia (G)
- 4 K. Keben (D)
- 5 H. Kyprianou (M)
- 6 M. Pollock (D)
- 10 M. Boadu (F)
- 15 K. Diatta (D)
- 17 Iker Bravo (F)
- 22 M. Payero (M)
- 29 Branimir Mlačić (D)
- 33 J. Zemura (D)
- 39 E. Kayembe (M)
Bench: Travis Akomeah, D. Bachmann, M. Bola, M. Doumbia, O. Maamma, S. Mavididi, Amin Nabizada, O. Traoré, R. Vata
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.11 | 83.9% | +2.2 pts |
| Double chance Watford or draw | 2.56 | 36.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.18 | 79.5% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.16 | 80.3% | +3.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 4.74 | 19.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 81.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 60.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.36 | 40.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 1.45 | 64.5% | +1.2 pts |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 3.40 | 27.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Watford clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.75 · 2-0 8.01 · 1-0 8.43 · 1-1 8.46 · 3-1 10.67
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 12:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 25 | Norwich | 0-1 | Watford |
| 06 Dec 25 | Watford | 3-2 | Norwich |