Real Betis 2–1 Malaga
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.45–1.21.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Real Betis to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 73% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.2, shots 23–10 with 6–4 on target. Real Betis got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 6). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Real Betis 4-3-3
- 1 Álvaro Vallés (G)
- 2 Héctor Bellerín (D)
- 4 Natan (D)
- 5 Marc Bartra (D)
- 8 Pablo Fornals (M)
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli (F)
- 11 Fran García (D)
- 17 Rodrigo Riquelme (F)
- 19 T. Parrott (F)
- 21 Marc Roca (M)
- 22 Isco (M)
Bench: J. A. Morante, G. Lo Celso, Aitor Ruibal, Ángel Ortiz, Antony, Dani Ceballos, Diego Conde, N. Deossa, Álvaro Fidalgo, Manu González, V. Gómez, Diego Llorente
Malaga 4-4-2
- 1 Alfonso Herrero (G)
- 3 Puga (D)
- 4 Einar Galilea (D)
- 6 Ramón Enríquez (M)
- 8 Carlos Dotor (F)
- 10 David Larrubia (M)
- 20 Fernando Calero (D)
- 21 Adrián Niño Heredia (F)
- 22 Dani Lorenzo (M)
- 31 Rafita (D)
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh (M)
Bench: H. Abaida, Juan Berrocal, J. Cajuste, Andrés Céspedes, J. Fernandez, Eneko Jauregi, Carlos López, Izan Merino, Álex Pastor, Rafa Rodríguez, Chupe, José Salinas
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Real Betis or draw | 1.07 | 88.3% | +1.7 pts |
| Double chance Malaga or draw | 3.40 | 27.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.13 | 83.8% | +1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Betis | 1.08 | 86.6% | +2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Malaga | 7.00 | 13.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 82.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.47 | 64.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.21 | 43.1% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 52.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Real Betis over 1.5 team goals | 1.32 | 70.8% | +3.1 pts |
| Malaga over 1.5 team goals | 4.39 | 21.4% | -2.1 pts |
| Real Betis clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +3.2 pts |
| Malaga clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -1.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 7.19 · 2-1 8.27 · 1-0 8.53 · 3-0 8.59 · 3-1 9.93
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).