Bolton 2–3 Bristol City
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.28–3.16.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bolton to win (37%); it finished with Bristol City to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 35% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bristol City created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–3.2, with the shot count roughly even (19–14, 6–9 on target). Bolton held 65% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the 2–3 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Bonham (G)
- 3 C. Forino-Joseph (D)
- 4 X. Simons (M)
- 6 B. Davies (D)
- 8 J. Sheehan (M)
- 10 S. Dalby (F)
- 11 T. Gale (F)
- 16 S. Iling-Junior (F)
- 17 A. Ito (M)
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal (D)
- 25 M. Conway (D)
Bench: L. Brunt, Ruben Rodrigues, K. Dong, Luca Stephenson, Max Lott, D. Watson, D. Harrington, A. Famewo, T. Bair
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
- 2 L. Eissat (D)
- 3 C. Pring (D)
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker (M)
- 8 J. Williams (M)
- 9 L. Tolaj (F)
- 12 J. Knight (M)
- 15 L. McNally (D)
- 19 G. Tanner (D)
- 21 Rio Cardines (D)
- 23 D. Ballard (F)
- 40 B. Collins (G)
Bench: S. Bell, S. Greenwood, T. Horvat, A. Randell, S. Tickle, S. Twine, J. Wallace, R. Atkinson, Y. Hirakawa
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bolton or draw | 1.60 | 58.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 1.36 | 68.9% | +2.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bolton | 2.18 | 42.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 1.64 | 57.1% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 75.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 52.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.92 | 32.0% | -1.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 57.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Bolton over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 2.08 | 44.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Bolton clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.24 · 0-1 8.52 · 1-2 8.72 · 1-0 10.21 · 2-1 10.36
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 14:56 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).