Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.23–1.02.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Arsenal to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 52% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1, shots 17–10 with 0–3 on target. Liverpool got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 6). Liverpool's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.2 xG despite 0 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Liverpool 4-2-3-1
- 1 Alisson Becker (G)
- 4 V. van Dijk (D)
- 5 J. Jacquet (D)
- 6 M. Kerkez (D)
- 7 F. Wirtz (M)
- 9 A. Isak (F)
- 10 A. Mac Allister (M)
- 18 C. Gakpo (M)
- 29 B. Barcola (M)
- 33 R. Araújo (D)
- 42 T. Nyoni (M)
Bench: R. Ngumoha, L. Koumas, Víctor Muñoz, D. Szoboszlai, R. Gravenberch, W. Endo, K. Tsimikas, J. Gomez, G. Mamardashvili
Arsenal 4-2-3-1
- 1 David Raya (G)
- 6 Gabriel Magalhães (D)
- 8 M. Ødegaard (M)
- 12 J. Timber (D)
- 15 E. Konsa (D)
- 17 C. Tzolis (M)
- 20 N. Madueke (M)
- 29 K. Havertz (F)
- 33 R. Calafiori (D)
- 39 Bruno Guimarães (M)
- 41 D. Rice (M)
Bench: Martín Zubimendi, V. Gyökeres, Kepa, Cristhian Mosquera, B. White, P. Hincapié, M. Lewis-Skelly, E. Eze, Mikel Merino
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 1.52 | 62.0% | +4.0 pts |
| Double chance Arsenal or draw | 1.42 | 66.3% | -3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Liverpool | 1.97 | 47.6% | +4.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arsenal | 1.79 | 52.4% | -4.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 75.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 51.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.06 | 30.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 57.1% | +0.1 pts |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 2.40 | 39.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Arsenal over 1.5 team goals | 2.26 | 41.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.21 · 0-1 8.94 · 1-2 9.05 · 1-0 9.40 · 2-1 9.92
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-01 16:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan 26 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Liverpool |
| 31 Aug 25 | Liverpool | 1-0 | Arsenal |