Genoa 2–0 Juventus
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.01–0.88.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Juventus to win (59%); it finished with Genoa to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 13% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–0.9, shots 14–16 with 2–3 on target. Juventus held 63% of the ball. Genoa's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1 xG, 2 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Genoa 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Bijlow (G)
- 3 K. Ehizibue (M)
- 4 Alexsandro Amorim (M)
- 5 L. Østigård (D)
- 8 T. Baldanzi (M)
- 9 Vítinha (F)
- 18 M. Osmajić (M)
- 22 J. Vásquez (D)
- 27 A. Marcandalli (D)
- 32 M. Frendrup (M)
- 77 M. Ellertsson (M)
Bench: H. Traorè, S. Wiafe, S. El Shaarawy, L. Colombo, Junior Messias, E. Meichtry, M. Mitaj, S. Otoa, D. Puczka, Nikita Solodchenko, S. Sabelli, D. Sommariva, D. Sow, F. Stolz, Lukas Klišys
Juventus 3-4-2-1
- 3 Bremer (D)
- 4 F. Gatti (D)
- 9 R. Kolo Muani (F)
- 12 Douglas Luiz (M)
- 15 P. Kalulu (M)
- 17 Kerim-Sam Alajbegović (M)
- 20 A. Cambiaso (M)
- 22 W. McKennie (M)
- 25 G. Vicario (G)
- 26 J. Lucumí (D)
- 29 P. Sarr (M)
Bench: N. Woltemade, D. Rugani, C. Pinsoglio, F. Pagnucco, A. Owusu, Neto, T. Koopmeiners, L. Kelly, A. Durmiši, J. Cabal, J. Boga, E. Zhegrova
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Genoa or draw | 2.04 | 46.4% | +3.7 pts |
| Double chance Juventus or draw | 1.17 | 80.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Genoa | 3.55 | 26.2% | +2.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Juventus | 1.26 | 73.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | 65.3% | -5.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.42 | 39.4% | -6.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.55 | 20.9% | -4.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.15 | 43.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Genoa over 1.5 team goals | 4.84 | 19.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Juventus over 1.5 team goals | 2.13 | 44.2% | -6.5 pts |
| Genoa clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +4.4 pts |
| Juventus clean sheet | 1.91 | 48.5% | +4.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 5.09 · 1-1 6.33 · 0-2 7.05 · 0-0 7.49 · 1-2 8.32
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-28 19:35 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr 26 | Juventus | 2-0 | Genoa |
| 31 Aug 25 | Genoa | 0-1 | Juventus |