Parma 0–0 Udinese
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.12–1.41.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Parma to win (43%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1.4, shots 8–20 with 2–5 on target. Udinese got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 4). Parma's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.1 xG despite 2 of 8 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Parma 3-5-2
- 4 V. Sierro (M)
- 9 D. Romero (F)
- 10 Adrián Bernabé (M)
- 15 E. Del Prato (D)
- 16 M. Keita (M)
- 19 E. Touré (F)
- 27 S. Britschgi (M)
- 29 F. Carboni (M)
- 30 G. Daffara (G)
- 37 M. Troilo (D)
- 72 D. Drobnic (D)
Bench: P. Almqvist, E. Corvi, T. De Martis, B. Cremaschi, Ousmane Diallo, C. Ordoñez, E. Valeri, Diego Carlos, G. Fabbian, M. Frigan, S. Ghidotti, Abdou Konate, S. Lontani, A. N'Diaye, H. Nicolussi
Udinese 3-4-2-1
- 8 J. Karlström (M)
- 9 K. Davis (F)
- 10 N. Zaniolo (M)
- 11 H. Kamara (M)
- 13 N. Bertola (D)
- 14 J. Abankwah (D)
- 16 M. Palma (M)
- 27 C. Kabasele (D)
- 30 G. Chakvetadze (M)
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp (M)
- 40 M. Okoye (G)
Bench: Oier Zarraga, J. Arizala, E. Ebosse, Unai Gómez, L. JovanoviÄ, S. Lovrić, L. Miller, B. Mrozek, D. Padelli, J. Piotrowski, G. Vinciati, M. Vojvoda
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Parma or draw | 1.45 | 65.3% | +4.3 pts |
| Double chance Udinese or draw | 1.45 | 65.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.36 | 69.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Parma | 1.88 | 49.8% | +4.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Udinese | 1.87 | 50.2% | -4.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45.9% | +2.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.65 | 25.9% | +1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 53.0% | +2.7 pts |
| Parma over 1.5 team goals | 2.59 | 36.2% | +4.0 pts |
| Udinese over 1.5 team goals | 2.58 | 36.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Parma clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Udinese clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -6.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.77 · 0-1 7.96 · 1-0 8.00 · 0-0 8.61 · 2-1 9.49
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-28 17:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 26 | Udinese | 0-1 | Parma |
| 29 Nov 25 | Parma | 0-2 | Udinese |