Bournemouth 2–0 Leeds
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.28–0.69.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Bournemouth to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 58% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Bournemouth created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–0.7 and the shot count agreed (11–10, 5–1 on target). On the balance of chances, the 2–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
- 1 Đ. Petrović (G)
- 3 A. Truffert (D)
- 5 J. Hill (D)
- 9 Evanilson (F)
- 10 R. Christie (M)
- 12 T. Adams (M)
- 14 António Silva (D)
- 15 A. Smith (D)
- 16 M. Tavernier (M)
- 19 J. Kluivert (M)
- 37 Rayan (M)
Bench: D. Brooks, L. Cook, B. Diakité, M. Di Gregorio, A. Adli, B. Doak, E. Kroupi, Á. Rodríguez, J. Soler
Leeds 3-4-2-1
- 1 J. Trafford (G)
- 2 J. Bogle (M)
- 3 G. Gudmundsson (M)
- 4 E. Ampadu (M)
- 5 T. Muharemović (D)
- 7 D. James (M)
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin (F)
- 10 H. Wilson (M)
- 22 A. Tanaka (M)
- 24 J. Justin (D)
- 30 N. Elvedi (D)
Bench: B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, I. Gruev, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, A. Stach, M. Zetterer
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 1.29 | 72.9% | +0.0 pts |
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.72 | 54.9% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bournemouth | 1.51 | 62.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 2.47 | 37.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 74.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 29.6% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.4% | -0.3 pts |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 46.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.85 | 32.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.28 · 1-0 7.79 · 2-1 8.35 · 0-0 10.12 · 2-0 10.33
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 14:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Apr 26 | Bournemouth | 2-2 | Leeds |
| 27 Sep 25 | Leeds | 2-2 | Bournemouth |