AS Roma 4–2 Cagliari
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.92–2.34.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made AS Roma to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 75% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
AS Roma created the better chances — the xG read 2.9–2.3, with the shot count roughly even (20–19, 8–8 on target). AS Roma's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.9 xG, 8 of 20 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
AS Roma 3-5-2
- 3 K. Koulierakis (D)
- 4 B. Cristante (M)
- 5 E. Ndicka (D)
- 9 S. Castro (F)
- 15 M. de Roon (M)
- 18 M. Soulé (F)
- 20 N. Molina (M)
- 23 G. Mancini (D)
- 61 N. Pisilli (M)
- 77 E. Lulli (M)
- 95 P. Gollini (G)
Bench: Wesley, D. Vásquez, D. Rensch, D. Malen, Hermoso, D. Ghilardi, Alessandro Di Nunzio, G. De Marzi, Mandjou Camara, L. Balerdi, Rodrigo Mora
Cagliari 3-5-1-1
- 1 E. Caprile (G)
- 2 Zé Pedro (D)
- 4 A. Romano (M)
- 8 M. Adopo (M)
- 14 A. Deiola (M)
- 15 J. Rodríguez (D)
- 18 M'Bala Nzola (F)
- 26 Y. Mina (D)
- 28 Y. Sugawara (M)
- 33 A. Obert (M)
- 39 A. Fadera (M)
Bench: J. Fazzini, Y. Trepy, R. Gagliardini, Kevin Carlos, R. Kofler, J. Liteta, D. Maldini, Y. Massolin, P. Mendy, B. Radunović, A. Sherri, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, R. Ciervo, G. Aurelio
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 1.05 | 90.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance Cagliari or draw | 3.47 | 27.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.15 | 82.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — AS Roma | 1.07 | 88.1% | +2.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cagliari | 7.92 | 11.9% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.86 | 32.9% | -1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.21 | 42.1% | -4.0 pts |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 1.45 | 64.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Cagliari over 1.5 team goals | 6.38 | 14.7% | -3.5 pts |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 1.91 | 48.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.6% | -1.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 5.82 · 1-0 6.43 · 3-0 7.58 · 2-1 8.35 · 1-1 9.59
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-27 19:35 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb 26 | AS Roma | 2-0 | Cagliari |
| 07 Dec 25 | Cagliari | 1-0 | AS Roma |