SV Elversberg 4–1 FSV Mainz 05
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.02–1.21.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured FSV Mainz 05 to win (59%); it finished with SV Elversberg to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 20% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–1.2, shots 13–10 with 6–2 on target. SV Elversberg's finishing ran hot — 4 from 1 xG, 6 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 4–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SV Elversberg
- 7 M. Krattenmacher (M)
- 8 Ł. Poręba (M)
- 19 L. Pinckert (D)
- 20 N. Kristof (G)
- 21 L. Günther (D)
- 25 L. Petkov (F)
- 26 L. Sirch (D)
- 31 M. Rohr (D)
- 40 Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (M)
- 42 D. Mokwa (F)
- 43 F. Keidel (M)
Bench: R. Adam, T. Boss, William Cole Campbell, A. Condé, N. Futkeu, F. Le Joncour, N. Mickelson, F. Schmahl, L. Schnellbacher
FSV Mainz 05
- 2 P. Mwene (D)
- 4 S. Posch (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 8 P. Nebel (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (D)
- 21 D. da Costa (D)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 27 R. Zentner (G)
- 48 K. Potulski (D)
Bench: S. Widmer, A. Schwolow, E. Martel, L. Maloney, Lee Jae-Sung, R. Königsdörffer, B. Hollerbach, F. Gruber, S. Bell
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SV Elversberg or draw | 1.77 | 53.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.33 | 70.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 75.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — SV Elversberg | 2.40 | 38.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.53 | 61.1% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 82.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 63.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.22 | 43.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 65.3% | -0.2 pts |
| SV Elversberg over 1.5 team goals | 2.18 | 43.1% | -0.8 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.68 | 55.8% | -0.1 pts |
| SV Elversberg clean sheet | 6.00 | 15.7% | -1.4 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.65 · 1-2 8.42 · 2-2 10.64 · 2-1 11.20 · 0-1 11.26
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-30 19:25 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).