Aston Villa 1–1 Fulham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.75–2.23.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Fulham to win (37%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Fulham created the better chances — the xG read 1.8–2.2 and the shot count agreed (16–14, 3–5 on target). Fulham's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.2 xG despite 5 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Fulham shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
- 1 Z. Suzuki (G)
- 2 M. Cash (D)
- 3 V. Lindelöf (D)
- 7 J. McGinn (M)
- 8 B. Kamara (M)
- 11 N. Jackson (F)
- 14 Pau Torres (D)
- 22 I. Maatsen (D)
- 27 L. Goretzka (M)
- 44 J. Manzambi (M)
- 47 Alysson Edward (M)
Bench: João Gomes, A. Garnacho, Brian Madjo, I. Mbaye, M. Bizot, T. Harwood-Bellis, T. Mings, R. Barkley, E. Buendía
Fulham 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Leno (G)
- 3 C. Bassey (D)
- 7 Gonzalo García (F)
- 14 Oscar Bobb (M)
- 16 S. Berge (M)
- 17 A. Iwobi (M)
- 19 S. Charles (M)
- 21 T. Castagne (D)
- 22 D. Affengruber (D)
- 24 Joshua King (M)
- 33 A. Robinson (D)
Bench: K. Tete, J. Andersen, T. Cairney, Manuel Ángel, H. Larsson, César Palacios, Kevin, B. Lecomte, Rodrigo Muniz
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Aston Villa or draw | 1.28 | 73.8% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Fulham or draw | 1.82 | 51.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Aston Villa | 1.45 | 64.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fulham | 2.60 | 35.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 54.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 57.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Aston Villa over 1.5 team goals | 1.85 | 50.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Fulham over 1.5 team goals | 2.69 | 34.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Fulham clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.72 · 2-1 8.40 · 1-0 8.48 · 2-0 10.46 · 1-2 11.62
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 19:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 26 | Fulham | 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 28 Sep 25 | Aston Villa | 3-1 | Fulham |