Hull City 2–2 Ipswich
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.76–1.08.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Hull City to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.8–1.1, shots 9–15 with 3–3 on target. Ipswich got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 5) and Ipswich held 62% of the ball. Hull City's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.8 xG, 3 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 2–2 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Hull City 5-4-1
- 2 L. Coyle (D)
- 3 R. Giles (D)
- 6 S. Ajayi (D)
- 9 O. McBurnie (F)
- 10 M. Belloumi (M)
- 15 J. Egan (D)
- 19 K. Tzolakis (G)
- 21 E. Stroud (M)
- 27 R. Slater (M)
- 32 N. Mendy (D)
- 42 T. Iroegbunam (M)
Bench: M. Cho, C. Mouzakitis, M. Crooks, B. Norton-Cuffy, J. Gelhardt, H. Morita, L. Herrington, P. McNair, D. Phillips
Ipswich 4-2-3-1
- 3 L. Davis (D)
- 6 I. Diop (D)
- 7 A. Fatawu (M)
- 10 J. Enciso (M)
- 11 J. Philogene (M)
- 12 Florentino (M)
- 19 Emersonn (F)
- 25 E. Palacios (M)
- 26 D. O'Shea (D)
- 28 C. Walton (G)
- 42 A. Ouattara (D)
Bench: D. Maeda, Z. Flemming, K. Scherpen, D. Furlong, J. Greaves, A. Matusiwa, M. Núñez, J. Clarke, C. Akpom
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hull City or draw | 1.52 | 62.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance Ipswich or draw | 1.42 | 66.1% | +2.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hull City | 1.98 | 47.4% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ipswich | 1.78 | 52.6% | +3.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 74.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.16 | 30.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.66 | 56.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Hull City over 1.5 team goals | 2.42 | 38.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Ipswich over 1.5 team goals | 2.25 | 41.7% | +0.8 pts |
| Hull City clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Ipswich clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.22 · 0-1 8.87 · 1-2 9.22 · 1-0 9.42 · 2-1 9.88
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 14:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 26 | Ipswich | 1-0 | Hull City |
| 25 Nov 25 | Hull City | 0-2 | Ipswich |