Villarreal 0–1 Espanyol
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–0.26.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Villarreal to win (70%); it finished with Espanyol to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 10% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Villarreal created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–0.3 and the shot count agreed (14–5, 4–3 on target). Villarreal got into the box far more often (7 shots inside it to 2) and Villarreal held 63% of the ball. Villarreal's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 4 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters Espanyol — on chances created, Villarreal shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Villarreal 4-4-2
- 6 Pau Navarro (D)
- 7 Gerard Moreno (F)
- 9 G. Mikautadze (F)
- 10 Alberto Moleiro (M)
- 12 Renato Veiga (D)
- 14 Santi Comesaña (M)
- 15 S. Mouriño (D)
- 16 C. Macia (M)
- 17 T. Buchanan (M)
- 23 Sergi Cardona (D)
- 25 P. Gulácsi (G)
Bench: Carlos Romero, Rubén Gómez, A. Freeman, N. El Jmili, Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, T. Oluwaseyi, N. Pépé, Ayoze Pérez, C. Tidiane Thiam
Espanyol 4-2-3-1
- 1 Ángel Fortuño (G)
- 6 L. Cabrera (D)
- 8 Edu Expósito (M)
- 9 Roberto Fernández (F)
- 15 Bryan Zaragoza (M)
- 16 V. Drkušić (D)
- 21 Roger Hinojo (D)
- 23 O. El Hilali (D)
- 26 Rafel Bauzà (M)
- 28 Javier Hernandez (M)
- 36 Alejandro Santiago Vargas (M)
Bench: T. Dolan, Marcos Fernández, Gabriel Moscardo, Q. Hartman, J. A. Lopez, Pol Lozano, Pere Milla, Unai Núñez, Javi Puado, Adama Timera, M. Dmitrović, Jan Peries Duran
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Villarreal or draw | 1.11 | 85.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Double chance Espanyol or draw | 2.87 | 32.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.16 | 81.7% | +1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Villarreal | 1.14 | 82.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Espanyol | 5.21 | 17.9% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 84.5% | +2.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.43 | 65.9% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.11 | 45.4% | +3.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.58 | 58.8% | +2.5 pts |
| Villarreal over 1.5 team goals | 1.34 | 69.6% | +3.5 pts |
| Espanyol over 1.5 team goals | 3.31 | 28.3% | +1.0 pts |
| Villarreal clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 10.00 | 9.6% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.88 · 2-0 8.37 · 1-0 9.63 · 1-1 9.73 · 3-1 9.87
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-30 19:55 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb 26 | Villarreal | 4-1 | Espanyol |
| 08 Nov 25 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Villarreal |