Werder Bremen 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.20–1.15.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured 1899 Hoffenheim to win (41%); it finished with Werder Bremen to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1.1, shots 18–16 with 4–2 on target. Werder Bremen got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 9). Werder Bremen's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.2 xG, 4 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
- 1 K. Hein (G)
- 2 O. Deman (D)
- 5 A. Pieper (D)
- 8 M. Weiser (M)
- 10 N. Füllkrug (F)
- 13 Arthur (D)
- 15 L. Reis (M)
- 17 M. Grüll (M)
- 20 Chuky San José (M)
- 32 M. Friedl (D)
- 44 Y. Regeer (M)
Bench: E. Dinkçi, C. Itten, S. Lynen, J. Njinmah, K. Quetant, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, Dariusz Stalmach, O. Wójcik
1899 Hoffenheim 3-5-2
- 1 O. Baumann (G)
- 5 O. Kabak (D)
- 7 L. Avdullahu (M)
- 10 A. Hložek (F)
- 11 F. Asllani (F)
- 14 A. Daghim (M)
- 18 W. Burger (M)
- 27 A. Kramarić (M)
- 28 K. Machida (D)
- 29 Natnael Abraha (M)
- 39 M. Rots (D)
Bench: V. Lässig, T. Lemperle, Cajetan Benjamin Lenz, L. Philipp, Y. B. Zor Muhammed, O. Hencke, K. Gjasula, J. Fields, Bernardo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Werder Bremen or draw | 1.52 | 62.0% | +5.0 pts |
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 1.52 | 61.9% | -4.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.24 | 76.1% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Werder Bremen | 1.89 | 49.6% | +5.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.86 | 50.4% | -5.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 85.4% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.38 | 67.9% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 48.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.34 | 69.6% | +1.1 pts |
| Werder Bremen over 1.5 team goals | 1.73 | 54.2% | +4.5 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.77 | 53.1% | -2.9 pts |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | +1.4 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -3.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.01 · 1-2 9.58 · 2-1 9.74 · 2-2 9.79 · 1-0 14.32
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-10-31 14:27 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09 May 26 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1-0 | Werder Bremen |
| 27 Jan 26 | Werder Bremen | 0-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim |