Blackburn
v Stoke City
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 32% | 36% | -4 |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | +2 |
| Stoke City | 37% | 35% | +2 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.5% · 0-0 11.0% · 0-1 10.5% · 1-0 9.5% · 1-2 8.0%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Blackburn or draw | 1.45 | 64.7% | -2.3 pts | 62.9% | -1.7 |
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.47 | 63.8% | +3.2 pts | 67.8% | +4.0 |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.6% | -0.9 pts | 69.3% | -2.3 |
| Draw no bet — Blackburn | 1.84 | 50.3% | -4.9 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.86 | 49.7% | +4.9 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 70.5% | -1.0 pts | 68.9% | -1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 45.9% | -2.4 pts | 41.2% | -4.7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.53 | 26.3% | -1.9 pts | 20.7% | -5.6 |
| Both teams to score | 1.78 | 52.1% | -1.8 pts | 48.6% | -3.5 |
| Blackburn over 1.5 team goals | 2.52 | 37.0% | -4.2 pts | 30.7% | -6.3 |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.56 | 36.3% | -0.3 pts | 34.3% | -2.1 |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts | 29.7% | +0.6 |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts | 32.7% | +3.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.06 · 1-0 7.86 · 0-1 8.11 · 0-0 8.75 · 2-1 9.49
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Blackburn under 1.0 goals at 2.21 — model 52%, market 42% (margin removed): a 10-point gap.
- under 2.5 goals at 1.74 — model 59%, market 54% (margin removed): a 5-point gap.
- Stoke City, draw no bet at 1.91 — model 54%, market 49% (margin removed): a 5-point gap.
4 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Blackburn: 4 recorded — A. Forshaw (Missing Fixture), M. Litherland (Missing Fixture), L. Miller (Missing Fixture), R. Morishita (Questionable)
Stoke City: 5 recorded — A. Ampah (Missing Fixture), E. Bocat (Missing Fixture), A. Cresswell (Missing Fixture), E. Galbraith (Missing Fixture), S. Gallagher (Missing Fixture)
Rotation risk — Blackburn: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Stoke City: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Blackburn
- 5 of Blackburn's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Blackburn's last 6 home league games.
Stoke City
- Stoke City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 3 league games (W2 D1).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Stoke City's last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- A. Guðjohnsen has scored 8 goals in 12 league games this season.
- B. Tóth has made 25 saves in 11 league games this season.
- O. Afolayan has scored 4 goals in 13 league games this season.
- V. Johansson has made 38 saves in 13 league games this season.
- E. Galbraith has 3 goals and 4 assists in 13 league games this season.
- J. McGlynn has scored 3 goals in 9 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Blackburn
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-4 | Swansea (A) | 0.4 - 2.4 |
| 24 Oct | W | 2-0 | Wrexham (H) | 1.6 - 1.7 |
| 17 Oct | L | 2-3 | West Brom (A) | 0.8 - 3.7 |
| 13 Oct | W | 1-0 | Bristol City (A) | 0.2 - 1.8 |
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Cardiff (H) | 1.8 - 1.1 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.6 - 1.6 |
Stoke City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 2-0 | Preston (H) | 2.2 - 0.2 |
| 24 Oct | D | 0-0 | Bristol City (H) | 0.7 - 0.8 |
| 17 Oct | W | 1-0 | Derby (A) | 0.6 - 1.1 |
| 13 Oct | L | 2-3 | Middlesbrough (H) | 0.7 - 2.6 |
| 10 Oct | W | 2-1 | Bolton (A) | 0.7 - 3.0 |
| 19 Sep | W | 2-1 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 0.7 - 0.4 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | Championship | 2026/27 | 13 | 13 | 18 | 1.385 | 19–20 | LWLWW |
| Stoke City | Championship | 2026/27 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 1.769 | 20–16 | WDWLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 4-0-2 | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1 |
| Stoke City | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Blackburn 3 wins, 2 draws, Stoke City 5 wins — 2.2 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Stoke City | 1-1 | Blackburn |
| 04 Oct 25 | Blackburn | 1-1 | Stoke City |