Derby
v Norwich
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 32% | 29% | +3 |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | +2 |
| Norwich | 41% | 45% | -4 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.1% · 1-2 8.9% · 0-1 8.1% · 2-1 7.7% · 0-0 7.4%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.71 | 54.7% | -0.4 pts | 59.1% | +4.5 |
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.31 | 71.4% | +1.0 pts | 68.5% | -2.9 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.0% | -0.6 pts | 72.4% | -1.6 |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 2.41 | 38.7% | -1.7 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.52 | 61.3% | +1.7 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.2% | -1.2 pts | 77.7% | +0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 55.7% | -2.3 pts | 52.6% | -3.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.67 | 34.9% | -2.4 pts | 30.4% | -4.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.59 | 58.8% | -1.9 pts | 57.3% | -1.4 |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 2.49 | 37.3% | -2.8 pts | 36.9% | -0.5 |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 1.86 | 49.9% | -1.0 pts | 44.0% | -5.9 |
| Derby clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +3.6 pts | 22.5% | +1.7 |
| Norwich clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts | 27.6% | -1.4 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.92 · 1-2 8.40 · 0-1 8.88 · 2-1 10.75 · 0-2 11.11
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Norwich under 1.0 goals at 3.38 — model 34%, market 27% (margin removed): a 7-point gap.
- Norwich under 1.5 goals at 1.85 — model 56%, market 50% (margin removed): a 6-point gap.
- under 3.0 goals at 1.66 — model 62%, market 56% (margin removed): a 5-point gap.
4 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Derby: 8 recorded — P. Agyemang (Missing Fixture), E. Cashin (Missing Fixture), M. Clarke (Missing Fixture), C. Forsyth (Missing Fixture), S. Langas (Missing Fixture), D. Murkin (Missing Fixture), C. Taylor (Missing Fixture), L. Travis (Missing Fixture)
Norwich: 5 recorded — A. Ahmed (Missing Fixture), P. A. Diallo (Missing Fixture), G. Forsyth (Missing Fixture), M. Toure (Missing Fixture), P. Mattsson (Questionable)
Rotation risk — Derby: another match 3d after (2026-11-06).
Rotation risk — Norwich: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Derby
- Derby are winless in their last 9 league games (D3 L6).
- Derby have not won any of their last 6 home league games (D2 L4).
- Derby have conceded in each of their last 9 league games.
Norwich
- Norwich have conceded in each of their last 20 league games.
- 5 of Norwich's last 6 away league games produced over 2.5 goals.
Players in form
- J. Widell Zetterström has made 43 saves in 9 league games this season.
- B. Clark has scored 3 goals in 13 league games this season.
- S. Szmodics has scored 3 goals in 12 league games this season.
- V. Kovačević has made 22 saves in 11 league games this season.
- M. Touré has scored 5 goals in 7 league games this season.
- M. Kvistgaarden has 3 goals and 4 assists in 11 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Derby
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-4 | Millwall (A) | 1.3 - 4.2 |
| 24 Oct | D | 1-1 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 1.1 - 2.5 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-1 | Stoke City (H) | 1.1 - 0.6 |
| 14 Oct | L | 1-4 | QPR (A) | 0.9 - 1.6 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Wrexham (H) | 0.6 - 1.3 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.8 - 0.5 |
Norwich
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-2 | Watford (H) | 1.2 - 1.0 |
| 24 Oct | W | 3-1 | Charlton (A) | 1.8 - 0.9 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-1 | Portsmouth (H) | 0.4 - 1.2 |
| 14 Oct | L | 0-1 | Southampton (H) | 1.1 - 2.5 |
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Swansea (A) | 0.7 - 2.2 |
| 20 Sep | L | 3-4 | Bolton (H) | 0.7 - 1.1 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Championship | 2026/27 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 0.538 | 11–25 | LDLLD |
| Norwich | Championship | 2026/27 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 1.154 | 23–24 | WWLLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 0-2-4 | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0 |
| Norwich | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-4 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 0 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Derby 4 wins, 3 draws, Norwich 3 wins — 2.7 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 26 | Norwich | 2-1 | Derby |
| 21 Oct 25 | Derby | 1-0 | Norwich |