Birmingham
v Millwall
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 42% | 48% | -6 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | -0 |
| Millwall | 32% | 26% | +6 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.0% · 2-1 8.9% · 1-2 7.8% · 1-0 6.5% · 2-2 6.4%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.27 | 73.5% | +1.2 pts | 67.6% | -6.0 |
| Double chance Millwall or draw | 1.78 | 52.5% | -1.0 pts | 58.5% | +6.0 |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | -0.2 pts | 73.9% | +0.0 |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 1.44 | 64.5% | +1.5 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Millwall | 2.61 | 35.5% | -1.5 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 75.8% | -0.3 pts | 82.1% | +6.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 53.2% | -0.4 pts | 59.1% | +5.9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.89 | 32.3% | -0.1 pts | 36.7% | +4.4 |
| Both teams to score | 1.65 | 56.2% | -0.6 pts | 62.3% | +6.1 |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 1.87 | 49.8% | +0.7 pts | 48.7% | -1.1 |
| Millwall over 1.5 team goals | 2.81 | 33.2% | -2.1 pts | 41.8% | +8.6 |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts | 24.0% | -9.8 |
| Millwall clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts | 19.5% | -1.3 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.66 · 1-0 7.97 · 2-1 8.20 · 2-0 10.06 · 0-1 11.39
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Millwall over 1.0 goals at 1.75 — model 64%, market 53% (margin removed): a 10-point gap.
- Millwall, draw no bet at 2.66 — model 44%, market 35% (margin removed): a 9-point gap.
- Millwall, draw no bet at 2.61 — model 44%, market 36% (margin removed): a 9-point gap.
10 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Birmingham: 3 recorded — M. Leonard (Missing Fixture), Paik Seung-Ho (Missing Fixture), A. Priske (Questionable)
Millwall: 7 recorded — T. Arconte (Missing Fixture), C. De Norre (Missing Fixture), L. Jensen (Missing Fixture), F. Marschall (Missing Fixture), J. Metcalfe (Missing Fixture), M. Servais (Missing Fixture), M. Luongo (Questionable)
Rotation risk — Birmingham: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Millwall: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Birmingham
- 5 of Birmingham's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Birmingham have averaged 2.3 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
Players in form
- J. Beadle has made 34 saves in 13 league games this season.
- A. Priske has scored 6 goals in 11 league games this season.
- L. Millar has 4 goals and 3 assists in 9 league games this season.
- C. Neghli has 3 goals and 3 assists in 13 league games this season.
- L. Dykes has scored 4 goals in 13 league games this season.
- T. Arconte has scored 3 goals in 8 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Birmingham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-1 | Lincoln (A) | 2.1 - 1.6 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-1 | Cardiff (A) | 0.9 - 2.4 |
| 17 Oct | W | 3-0 | QPR (H) | 1.3 - 1.2 |
| 13 Oct | W | 4-0 | Preston (H) | 2.2 - 0.5 |
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | West Brom (A) | 2.6 - 1.1 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (H) | 1.2 - 2.1 |
Millwall
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 4-1 | Derby (H) | 4.2 - 1.3 |
| 24 Oct | L | 1-2 | Portsmouth (A) | 0.7 - 0.9 |
| 17 Oct | D | 2-2 | Lincoln (H) | 1.8 - 0.8 |
| 13 Oct | L | 0-1 | Swansea (H) | 1.1 - 1.0 |
| 10 Oct | W | 1-0 | Preston (A) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | West Ham (H) | 2.7 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Championship | 2026/27 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 1.769 | 23–13 | WLWWW |
| Millwall | Championship | 2026/27 | 12 | 13 | 18 | 1.385 | 23–21 | WLDLW |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-4-0 | 2.3 / 1.2 | 2 |
| Millwall | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-1-3 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 2 wins, 4 draws, Millwall 4 wins — 2.1 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 26 | Millwall | 3-0 | Birmingham |
| 04 Nov 25 | Birmingham | 4-0 | Millwall |