Watford
v Lincoln
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | 37% | 39% | -2 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Lincoln | 35% | 33% | +1 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.6% · 2-1 8.3% · 0-0 8.3% · 1-0 8.3% · 1-2 8.1%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Watford or draw | 1.41 | 66.6% | -1.0 pts | 65.2% | -1.4 |
| Double chance Lincoln or draw | 1.53 | 61.1% | +2.1 pts | 63.3% | +2.2 |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.3% | -1.0 pts | 71.4% | -0.9 |
| Draw no bet — Watford | 1.74 | 53.5% | -2.0 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Lincoln | 2.00 | 46.5% | +2.0 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.5% | -0.8 pts | 75.5% | +2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.1% | -1.3 pts | 49.4% | -0.7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.14 | 29.7% | -0.6 pts | 27.5% | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.2% | -1.0 pts | 55.1% | -0.1 |
| Watford over 1.5 team goals | 2.25 | 41.5% | -2.7 pts | 38.9% | -2.6 |
| Lincoln over 1.5 team goals | 2.48 | 37.5% | -0.9 pts | 37.5% | -0.0 |
| Watford clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.0 pts | 27.1% | -0.5 |
| Lincoln clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts | 26.0% | -0.7 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.22 · 1-0 8.35 · 2-1 9.08 · 0-1 9.18 · 1-2 9.99
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:01 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Watford under 1.0 goals at 2.54 — model 41%, market 36% (margin removed): a 5-point gap.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Watford: 5 recorded — M. Antonio (Missing Fixture), K. Baah (Missing Fixture), E. Bove (Missing Fixture), S. Coulibaly (Missing Fixture), J. Ngakia (Missing Fixture)
Lincoln: 3 recorded — T. Darikwa (Missing Fixture), M. Melia (Missing Fixture), E. Wheatley (Missing Fixture)
Rotation risk — Watford: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Lincoln: another match 3d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Lincoln
- Lincoln have conceded in each of their last 6 league games.
Players in form
- F. Ravaglia has made 47 saves in 13 league games this season.
- Amin Nabizada has scored 3 goals in 13 league games this season.
- Iker Bravo has 1 goal and 3 assists in 13 league games this season.
- G. Wickens has made 43 saves in 13 league games this season.
- M. Ladefoged has scored 3 goals in 10 league games this season.
- F. Draper has scored 2 goals in 12 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Watford
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 2-3 | Norwich (A) | 1.0 - 1.2 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-1 | Wolves (A) | 0.1 - 1.9 |
| 17 Oct | W | 2-0 | Charlton (H) | 2.9 - 1.3 |
| 13 Oct | L | 1-5 | Cardiff (A) | 1.5 - 3.8 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-4 | Burnley (H) | 0.6 - 1.9 |
| 18 Sep | L | 0-1 | Bristol City (A) | 0.5 - 1.6 |
Lincoln
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-3 | Birmingham (H) | 1.6 - 2.1 |
| 24 Oct | W | 4-1 | Burnley (H) | 1.9 - 2.4 |
| 17 Oct | D | 2-2 | Millwall (A) | 0.8 - 1.8 |
| 14 Oct | L | 0-6 | West Ham (H) | 0.4 - 3.2 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-3 | Sheffield Utd (A) | 1.3 - 0.6 |
| 19 Sep | L | 1-2 | Swansea (H) | 2.1 - 0.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | Championship | 2026/27 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 0.846 | 12–23 | LLWLL |
| Lincoln | Championship | 2026/27 | 16 | 13 | 15 | 1.154 | 14–23 | LWDLL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1 |
| Lincoln | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.0 / 1.2 | 3 |
This season’s home and away splits.