Cardiff
v West Ham
← Back to the Wed 04 Nov board
On the record: Cardiff, draw no bet @ 2.59 — provisional — it counts only if it still clears the pick test once the line-ups are in. Paper only, nothing staked.
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 38% | 28% | +11 |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | +1 |
| West Ham | 37% | 49% | -12 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 10.8% · 2-1 8.3% · 1-2 8.1% · 2-2 6.9% · 2-0 5.0%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 1.84 | 51.1% | +0.5 pts | 63.1% | +12.0 |
| Double chance West Ham or draw | 1.30 | 72.2% | -0.4 pts | 61.6% | -10.6 |
| Double chance either team | 1.22 | 76.7% | -0.1 pts | 75.3% | -1.4 |
| Draw no bet — Cardiff | 2.53 | 36.7% | +0.8 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — West Ham | 1.47 | 63.3% | -0.8 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 85.5% | -0.2 pts | 85.9% | +0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.1% | -0.1 pts | 65.3% | -2.8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.97 | 47.9% | -0.5 pts | 43.4% | -4.5 |
| Both teams to score | 1.37 | 67.6% | -0.3 pts | 67.2% | -0.4 |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 2.05 | 45.5% | +0.3 pts | 50.7% | +5.3 |
| West Ham over 1.5 team goals | 1.53 | 60.8% | -0.6 pts | 49.5% | -11.2 |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +1.0 pts | 18.9% | +4.4 |
| West Ham clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts | 18.2% | -5.1 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 8.66 · 1-2 8.76 · 2-2 10.54 · 2-1 11.82 · 1-3 12.54
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:02 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- West Ham under 2.0 goals at 1.79 — model 68%, market 52% (margin removed): a 17-point gap.
- Cardiff, draw no bet at 2.56 — model 51%, market 36% (margin removed): a 14-point gap.
- Cardiff, draw no bet at 2.53 — model 51%, market 37% (margin removed): a 14-point gap.
14 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Rotation risk — Cardiff: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — West Ham: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Cardiff
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cardiff's last 6 home league games.
- Cardiff have averaged 2.2 goals a game across their last 6 home league games.
West Ham
- West Ham have averaged 2.5 goals a game across their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- N. Trott has made 46 saves in 13 league games this season.
- J. Moylan has 6 goals and 3 assists in 13 league games this season.
- O. Tanner has 2 goals and 4 assists in 13 league games this season.
- J. Bowen has 7 goals and 5 assists in 13 league games this season.
- M. Hermansen has made 24 saves in 13 league games this season.
- K. Mavropanos has scored 5 goals in 11 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Cardiff
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 0-3 | Wolves (A) | 1.1 - 1.6 |
| 24 Oct | W | 1-0 | Birmingham (H) | 2.4 - 0.9 |
| 17 Oct | D | 2-2 | Middlesbrough (A) | 0.9 - 2.8 |
| 13 Oct | W | 5-1 | Watford (H) | 3.8 - 1.5 |
| 10 Oct | L | 1-2 | Blackburn (A) | 1.1 - 1.8 |
| 19 Sep | W | 3-1 | Charlton (H) | 2.6 - 1.3 |
West Ham
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | L | 1-3 | West Brom (H) | 1.0 - 2.1 |
| 24 Oct | L | 2-3 | Southampton (H) | 1.6 - 1.6 |
| 17 Oct | W | 1-0 | Swansea (A) | 1.2 - 1.1 |
| 14 Oct | W | 6-0 | Lincoln (A) | 3.2 - 0.4 |
| 09 Oct | D | 1-1 | QPR (H) | 1.6 - 1.2 |
| 19 Sep | D | 2-2 | Millwall (A) | 1.9 - 2.7 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | Championship | 2026/27 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 1.077 | 19–20 | LWDWL |
| West Ham | Championship | 2026/27 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 1.692 | 33–18 | LLWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-3-0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1 |
| West Ham | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-3-0 | 2.5 / 1.2 | 2 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Cardiff 2 wins, 0 draws, West Ham 7 wins — 2.56 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.