Bristol City
v Wolves
← Back to the Wed 04 Nov board
On the record: Bristol City, draw no bet @ 2.41 — provisional — it counts only if it still clears the pick test once the line-ups are in. Paper only, nothing staked.
The model's read
| Match result | Model | Market | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 39% | 28% | +11 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2 |
| Wolves | 32% | 45% | -13 |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 1-0 9.1% · 0-0 8.9% · 2-1 8.5% · 0-1 8.1%
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move | Model | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 1.71 | 54.7% | -0.3 pts | 67.7% | +13.1 |
| Double chance Wolves or draw | 1.29 | 72.4% | +0.1 pts | 61.3% | -11.1 |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 72.9% | +0.1 pts | 71.0% | -2.0 |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 2.43 | 38.3% | -0.3 pts | — | — |
| Draw no bet — Wolves | 1.51 | 61.7% | +0.3 pts | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 73.9% | +0.3 pts | 73.9% | -0.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 50.4% | +0.1 pts | 47.3% | -3.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.15 | 29.6% | -0.3 pts | 25.7% | -4.0 |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.8% | -0.1 pts | 53.4% | -1.4 |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 2.81 | 33.1% | +0.0 pts | 39.1% | +6.0 |
| Wolves over 1.5 team goals | 2.00 | 46.6% | +0.2 pts | 34.3% | -12.4 |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts | 29.7% | +6.3 |
| Wolves clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +2.5 pts | 25.9% | -7.8 |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.42 · 0-1 7.73 · 1-2 8.37 · 0-2 10.15 · 1-0 10.21
Prices are observations, not offers. Nothing here is advice or staked.
How to read this table
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-11-02 08:03 UTC. Refreshed through the final two hours before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Where the model disagrees with the market
The biggest gaps from the 02 Nov odds scan (each at least 4 points, at odds of 1.50 or better).
- Bristol City, draw no bet at 2.50 — model 54%, market 37% (margin removed): a 16-point gap.
- Wolves under 1.0 goals at 3.02 — model 46%, market 31% (margin removed): a 16-point gap.
- Bristol City, draw no bet at 2.43 — model 54%, market 38% (margin removed): a 16-point gap.
12 further smaller disagreements on this fixture cleared the same bars.
What a gap does and does not mean
Availability and rotation
Rotation risk — Bristol City: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Rotation risk — Wolves: another match 2d after (2026-11-07).
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Bristol City
- Only 1 of Bristol City's last 6 home league games produced over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of Bristol City's last 6 home league games.
- Bristol City have scored just 3 goals across their last 6 home league games.
Wolves
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 4 league games (W3 D1).
Players in form
- D. Ballard has scored 4 goals in 13 league games this season.
- Rio Cardines has 0 goals and 6 assists in 13 league games this season.
- S. Twine has scored 4 goals in 13 league games this season.
- José Sá has made 32 saves in 13 league games this season.
- Fer López has 6 goals and 3 assists in 13 league games this season.
- A. Armstrong has scored 3 goals in 11 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Bristol City
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-2 | Bolton (A) | 3.2 - 1.3 |
| 24 Oct | D | 0-0 | Stoke City (A) | 0.8 - 0.7 |
| 17 Oct | L | 0-1 | Sheffield Utd (H) | 0.6 - 1.2 |
| 13 Oct | L | 0-1 | Blackburn (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
| 10 Oct | D | 1-1 | Charlton (A) | 1.6 - 2.0 |
| 18 Sep | W | 1-0 | Watford (H) | 1.6 - 0.5 |
Wolves
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | W | 3-0 | Cardiff (H) | 1.6 - 1.1 |
| 24 Oct | W | 1-0 | Watford (H) | 1.9 - 0.1 |
| 20 Oct | D | 1-1 | Portsmouth (H) | 1.1 - 0.7 |
| 16 Oct | W | 2-1 | Burnley (A) | 1.9 - 1.0 |
| 13 Oct | L | 1-3 | Bolton (H) | 2.3 - 1.6 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-1 | Middlesbrough (A) | 0.6 - 1.0 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | Championship | 2026/27 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 1.385 | 15–17 | WDLLD |
| Wolves | Championship | 2026/27 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 1.846 | 23–16 | WWDWL |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | home | Championship | 2026/27 | 2-0-4 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 1 |
| Wolves | away | Championship | 2026/27 | 3-1-2 | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bristol City 2 wins, 1 draws, Wolves 7 wins — 3.3 goals a game on average.
Match-by-match detail predates the fixtures this site tracks; the summary above comes from the head-to-head archive.