Fixture · 2. Bundesliga · Sat 07 Nov 2026, 12:00 GMT
Holstein Kiel
v Arminia Bielefeld
The model's read
Holstein Kiel
36%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Arminia Bielefeld
34%
match result
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 65.6% |
| Double chance Arminia Bielefeld or draw | 63.5% |
| Double chance either team | 70.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 37.5% |
| Arminia Bielefeld over 1.5 team goals | 35.9% |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 28.3% |
| Arminia Bielefeld clean sheet | 27.1% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 13.9% · 0-0 8.9% · 1-0 8.8% · 0-1 8.4% · 2-1 8.3%
Young rating. This league joined the model this season, so the numbers
above are built on a first season of data only — a small sample with no prior
seasons behind it. Read them with more caution than the established six leagues. No
picks are generated from young leagues; how well these reads age is scored in public,
separately, on the calibration page.
Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one
Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to
beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.
Availability and rotation
No recorded absences for this fixture yet. The collector refreshes availability in the final days before kick-off; an empty list this far out means no data, not a clean bill of health.
Hot stats & streaks
Mined from recorded results in our own database — league games only, every line states its sample. Descriptive, not predictive: a streak is what happened, not what happens next.
Arminia Bielefeld
- Arminia Bielefeld have lost 5 of their last 6 away league games.
Players in form
- Phil Harres has scored 2 goals in 2 league games this season.
- Joel Grodowski has scored 3 goals in 2 league games this season.
This season, league games only. Match ratings are our data provider’s per-game scores, not our model.
Recent form
Holstein Kiel
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | L | 0-1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A) | 1.2 - 0.8 |
| 25 Oct | W | 3-0 | Dynamo Dresden (H) | 1.5 - 2.0 |
| 16 Oct | D | 0-0 | Hertha BSC (H) | 0.6 - 1.6 |
| 10 Oct | L | 0-1 | Eintracht Braunschweig (A) | 1.2 - 1.2 |
| 19 Sep | D | 1-1 | VfL Osnabrück (H) | 2.1 - 1.8 |
| 13 Sep | L | 0-1 | 1. FC Heidenheim (A) | 0.8 - 2.3 |
Arminia Bielefeld
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct | W | 3-1 | Eintracht Braunschweig (H) | 1.3 - 0.4 |
| 24 Oct | L | 0-1 | Hertha BSC (A) | 0.4 - 2.0 |
| 18 Oct | W | 2-1 | VfL Osnabrück (H) | 1.1 - 1.4 |
| 11 Oct | W | 1-0 | VfL Bochum (A) | 1.5 - 0.5 |
| 20 Sep | D | 2-2 | 1. FC Heidenheim (H) | 0.5 - 2.5 |
| 11 Sep | L | 1-2 | SV Darmstadt 98 (A) | 1.2 - 1.9 |
Chance quality, most recent season
Holstein Kiel
-0.20
xG diff/game · 1.36 for, 1.57 against
Arminia Bielefeld
+0.04
xG diff/game · 1.30 for, 1.26 against
Where they stand
| Team | League | Season | Pos | P | Pts | PPG | Goals | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 10–12 | LWDLD |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 1.4 | 16–15 | WLWWD |
The table as it stands this season.
Home and away
| Team | Venue | League | Season | W-D-L | Goals for / against per game | Clean sheets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | home | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-4-0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 2 |
| Arminia Bielefeld | away | 2. Bundesliga | 2026/27 | 1-0-4 | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1 |
This season’s home and away splits.
Head to head
Last 9 meetings: Holstein Kiel 0 wins, 1 draws, Arminia Bielefeld 8 wins — 3.33 goals a game on average.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 26 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2-2 | Holstein Kiel |
| 10 Aug 25 | Holstein Kiel | 0-2 | Arminia Bielefeld |