Full time · Ligue 2 · Sat 08 Aug 2026, 19:45 UTC
Metz 2–1 Guingamp
What the chances were worth
No expected-goals numbers captured for this match.
The brain read
Metz carried the greater threat — shots 15–10, 7–6 on target, 10–7 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
Metz
Guingamp
41%
Ball Possession
59%
15
Total Shots
10
7
Shots on Goal
6
3
Shots off Goal
4
5
Blocked Shots
0
10
Shots inside box
7
5
Shots outside box
3
5
Corner Kicks
3
0
Offsides
1
372
Total passes
547
317
Passes accurate
479
85%
Passes %
88%
16
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
5
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
Metz
47%
market implied · price 1.98
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.43
Guingamp
26%
market implied · price 3.64
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance Metz or draw | 1.26 | 74.1% |
| Double chance Guingamp or draw | 1.78 | 52.6% |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.3% |
| Draw no bet — Metz | 1.44 | 64.3% |
| Draw no bet — Guingamp | 2.59 | 35.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 72.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 48.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 28.3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.76 | 52.5% |
| Metz over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.2% |
| Guingamp over 1.5 team goals | 3.14 | 29.6% |
| Metz clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.22 · 1-0 6.93 · 2-1 8.10 · 2-0 9.12 · 0-0 9.18
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-08 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off.
Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.