Holstein Kiel 2–2 FC St. Pauli
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.09–2.56.
The brain read
The xG read 2.1–2.6 in FC St. Pauli's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 19–13 overall and 6–6 on target went Holstein Kiel's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Holstein Kiel got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 10) and Holstein Kiel held 64% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw | 1.42 | 65.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw | 1.53 | 61.3% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Holstein Kiel | 1.76 | 52.7% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — FC St. Pauli | 1.96 | 47.3% | +4.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 76.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 54.7% | +2.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.75 | 33.9% | +1.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 58.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Holstein Kiel over 1.5 team goals | 2.11 | 44.3% | -0.9 pts |
| FC St. Pauli over 1.5 team goals | 2.25 | 41.5% | +3.8 pts |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -0.9 pts |
| FC St. Pauli clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.38 · 2-1 8.79 · 1-0 9.12 · 1-2 9.24 · 0-1 9.72
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-14 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).