FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC

Charlton
v Derby

← Back to the Sat 15 Aug board

The model's read

Charlton
32%
match result
Draw
29%
match result
Derby
39%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Charlton or draw61.0%
Double chance Derby or draw68.4%
Double chance either team70.6%
Over 1.5 goals72.9%
Over 2.5 goals46.0%
Over 3.5 goals24.6%
Both teams to score52.3%
Charlton over 1.5 team goals33.0%
Derby over 1.5 team goals38.6%
Charlton clean sheet26.3%
Derby clean sheet30.7%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.0% · 0-1 9.5% · 0-0 9.4% · 1-2 8.5% · 1-0 8.3%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Recent form — Charlton

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
02 MayL1-3Swansea (A)1.0 - 1.2
25 AprW2-1Hull City (H)1.1 - 0.9
22 AprL1-2Ipswich (H)0.3 - 1.9
18 AprD1-1Sheffield Wednesday (A)1.3 - 0.9
11 AprL1-2Preston (H)1.3 - 1.3
06 AprD1-1Watford (A)2.1 - 1.3

Recent form — Derby

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
02 MayL1-2Sheffield Utd (H)2.1 - 1.9
25 AprW3-2QPR (A)1.1 - 2.5
21 AprL1-2Norwich (A)1.2 - 1.5
18 AprW1-0Oxford United (H)1.0 - 0.7
11 AprL1-2Southampton (A)0.9 - 1.7
06 AprW2-0Stoke City (H)2.4 - 0.3

Chance quality, most recent season

Charlton
-0.35
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.38 against
Derby
+0.02
xG diff/game · 1.23 for, 1.21 against

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
20 Jan 26Charlton1-2Derby
30 Sep 25Derby1-1Charlton