Charlton 2–1 Derby
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.07–1.01.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Derby to win (39%); it finished with Charlton to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 32% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1, shots 13–15 with 4–4 on target. Charlton's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 4 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 1.44 | 64.7% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.43 | 65.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 1.87 | 49.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 1.85 | 50.3% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 43.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.83 | 24.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 50.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 2.70 | 34.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 2.66 | 35.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 3.12 | 29.9% | +0.7 pts |
| Derby clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.0% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.67 · 0-1 7.33 · 1-0 7.38 · 0-0 8.06 · 1-2 9.39
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 26 | Charlton | 1-2 | Derby |
| 30 Sep 25 | Derby | 1-1 | Charlton |