Hertha BSC 4–1 1. FC Heidenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.97–0.98.
The brain read
Hertha BSC created the better chances — the xG read 2–1 and the shot count agreed (19–11, 9–3 on target). Hertha BSC's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2 xG, 9 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Hertha BSC or draw | 1.40 | 66.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw | 1.57 | 59.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hertha BSC | 1.68 | 55.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.10 | 44.4% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 58.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.47 | 37.7% | +1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.4% | +1.5 pts |
| Hertha BSC over 1.5 team goals | 1.92 | 48.4% | -0.2 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.5 team goals | 2.18 | 42.9% | +2.3 pts |
| Hertha BSC clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
| 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.69 · 2-1 8.56 · 1-2 9.62 · 1-0 9.90 · 2-2 10.56
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 13:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).