Portsmouth 1–3 QPR
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.90–2.04.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Portsmouth to win (37%); it finished with QPR to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–2, shots 16–13 with 6–6 on target. Portsmouth's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 6 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance QPR or draw | 1.55 | 60.2% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 1.67 | 55.6% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — QPR | 2.10 | 44.4% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 69.5% | -3.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.12 | 44.5% | -5.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.78 | 24.7% | -4.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.82 | 51.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.41 | 38.5% | -4.3 pts |
| QPR over 1.5 team goals | 2.86 | 32.5% | -1.8 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 2.85 | 32.5% | +1.6 pts |
| QPR clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.7% | +1.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.79 · 1-0 6.92 · 0-1 7.99 · 0-0 8.30 · 2-1 8.89
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | QPR | 6-1 | Portsmouth |
| 26 Dec 25 | Portsmouth | 1-1 | QPR |