FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · La Liga · Sat 15 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC

Sevilla
v Rayo Vallecano

← Back to the Sat 15 Aug board

The model's read

Sevilla
40%
match result
Draw
30%
match result
Rayo Vallecano
29%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Sevilla or draw70.7%
Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw59.8%
Double chance either team69.5%
Over 1.5 goals69.2%
Over 2.5 goals41.5%
Over 3.5 goals20.9%
Both teams to score48.5%
Sevilla over 1.5 team goals36.7%
Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals28.6%
Sevilla clean sheet34.7%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet27.7%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 1-0 11.0% · 0-0 10.9% · 0-1 8.9% · 2-1 8.4%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Recent form — Sevilla

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
23 MayL0-1Celta Vigo (A)0.8 - 1.6
17 MayL0-1Real Madrid (H)0.7 - 1.0
13 MayW3-2Villarreal (A)0.9 - 0.8
09 MayW2-1Espanyol (H)1.4 - 0.6
04 MayW1-0Real Sociedad (H)1.8 - 0.2
26 AprL1-2Osasuna (A)0.4 - 1.4

Recent form — Rayo Vallecano

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
23 MayW2-1Alaves (A)1.3 - 1.6
17 MayW2-0Villarreal (H)1.5 - 1.0
14 MayD1-1Valencia (A)1.2 - 0.8
11 MayD1-1Girona (H)1.2 - 1.0
03 MayW2-0Getafe (A)0.8 - 1.4
26 AprD3-3Real Sociedad (H)2.4 - 2.2

Chance quality, most recent season

Sevilla
-0.47
xG diff/game · 1.03 for, 1.51 against
Rayo Vallecano
+0.10
xG diff/game · 1.39 for, 1.30 against

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
08 Mar 26Sevilla1-1Rayo Vallecano
28 Sep 25Rayo Vallecano0-1Sevilla