| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 70.7% |
| Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw | 59.8% |
| Double chance either team | 69.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 36.7% |
| Rayo Vallecano over 1.5 team goals | 28.6% |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 34.7% |
| Rayo Vallecano clean sheet | 27.7% |
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 14.4% · 1-0 11.0% · 0-0 10.9% · 0-1 8.9% · 2-1 8.4%
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May | L | 0-1 | Celta Vigo (A) | 0.8 - 1.6 |
| 17 May | L | 0-1 | Real Madrid (H) | 0.7 - 1.0 |
| 13 May | W | 3-2 | Villarreal (A) | 0.9 - 0.8 |
| 09 May | W | 2-1 | Espanyol (H) | 1.4 - 0.6 |
| 04 May | W | 1-0 | Real Sociedad (H) | 1.8 - 0.2 |
| 26 Apr | L | 1-2 | Osasuna (A) | 0.4 - 1.4 |
| Date | R | Score | Opponent | xG for-against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May | W | 2-1 | Alaves (A) | 1.3 - 1.6 |
| 17 May | W | 2-0 | Villarreal (H) | 1.5 - 1.0 |
| 14 May | D | 1-1 | Valencia (A) | 1.2 - 0.8 |
| 11 May | D | 1-1 | Girona (H) | 1.2 - 1.0 |
| 03 May | W | 2-0 | Getafe (A) | 0.8 - 1.4 |
| 26 Apr | D | 3-3 | Real Sociedad (H) | 2.4 - 2.2 |
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Mar 26 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 28 Sep 25 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-1 | Sevilla |