Sheffield Utd 0–0 Birmingham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.36–0.65.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Sheffield Utd to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.4–0.7, shots 3–10 with 1–2 on target. Birmingham got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sheffield Utd or draw | 1.37 | 68.2% | +1.5 pts |
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.55 | 60.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sheffield Utd | 1.69 | 55.3% | +2.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 2.09 | 44.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 47.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.42 | 27.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Sheffield Utd over 1.5 team goals | 2.29 | 40.6% | +1.6 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 2.71 | 34.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Sheffield Utd clean sheet | 3.05 | 30.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 3.52 | 26.4% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.89 · 1-0 7.43 · 0-1 8.60 · 2-1 8.61 · 0-0 9.10
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 26 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Sheffield Utd |
| 20 Dec 25 | Sheffield Utd | 3-0 | Birmingham |