FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Fixture · Championship · Sat 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stoke City
v Swansea

← Back to the Sat 15 Aug board

The model's read

Stoke City
31%
match result
Draw
27%
match result
Swansea
42%
match result
MarketModel probability
Double chance Stoke City or draw57.8%
Double chance Swansea or draw68.8%
Double chance either team73.3%
Over 1.5 goals80.3%
Over 2.5 goals56.2%
Over 3.5 goals33.9%
Both teams to score60.0%
Stoke City over 1.5 team goals38.9%
Swansea over 1.5 team goals47.2%
Stoke City clean sheet20.4%
Swansea clean sheet26.1%

Most likely scorelines: 1-1 12.5% · 1-2 9.0% · 2-1 7.6% · 0-1 7.3% · 0-2 6.7%

Probabilities, not selections. Every number above is read off one Dixon-Coles scoreline grid. None of it becomes a call until there is a market price to beat, the edge survives the margin, and lineups are confirmed. Nothing here is staked.

Recent form — Stoke City

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
02 MayL0-2Bristol City (A)1.0 - 2.0
25 AprL1-3Portsmouth (H)1.5 - 1.6
21 AprL1-3Millwall (H)1.0 - 1.5
18 AprL0-2Wrexham (A)0.3 - 1.2
11 AprD1-1Blackburn (H)1.7 - 0.7
06 AprL0-2Derby (A)0.3 - 2.4

Recent form — Swansea

DateRScoreOpponentxG for-against
02 MayW3-1Charlton (H)1.2 - 1.0
25 AprD1-1Norwich (A)1.2 - 1.7
21 AprW2-1QPR (A)2.6 - 1.6
18 AprL1-2Southampton (H)1.2 - 1.2
11 AprW1-0Leicester (A)0.7 - 1.4
06 AprD2-2Middlesbrough (H)2.2 - 3.1

Chance quality, most recent season

Stoke City
-0.28
xG diff/game · 1.11 for, 1.39 against
Swansea
-0.12
xG diff/game · 1.11 for, 1.24 against

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
07 Mar 26Swansea2-0Stoke City
13 Dec 25Stoke City2-1Swansea