Stoke City 1–2 Swansea
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.63–0.61.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Swansea to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 42% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.6, shots 5–7 with 2–3 on target. Swansea's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 1.36 | 69.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Swansea or draw | 1.56 | 60.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 1.66 | 56.1% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Swansea | 2.12 | 43.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 70.7% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 46.4% | +1.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.55 | 26.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.78 | 52.4% | +1.1 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 39.8% | +1.4 pts |
| Swansea over 1.5 team goals | 2.83 | 33.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 2.77 | 33.4% | +0.0 pts |
| Swansea clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.4% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.88 · 1-0 7.17 · 0-1 8.39 · 0-0 8.62 · 2-1 8.78
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-15 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar 26 | Swansea | 2-0 | Stoke City |
| 13 Dec 25 | Stoke City | 2-1 | Swansea |