FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Championship · Mon 17 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

Cardiff 11 Wrexham

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What the chances were worth

Cardiff
0.77
expected goals (xG)
Wrexham
1.49
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.77–1.49.

The brain read

Wrexham created the better chances — the xG read 0.8–1.5 and the shot count agreed (10–18, 2–8 on target). Wrexham got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 7) and Cardiff held 67% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Wrexham shaded the game.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Cardiff
Wrexham
67%
Ball Possession
33%
10
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Goal
8
5
Shots off Goal
7
3
Blocked Shots
3
7
Shots inside box
12
3
Shots outside box
6
0.77
Expected goals (xG)
1.49
9
Corner Kicks
9
3
Offsides
1
540
Total passes
258
480
Passes accurate
203
89%
Passes %
79%
9
Fouls
12
0
Yellow Cards
2
7
Goalkeeper Saves
2
0.35
Goals prevented
0.35

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Cardiff
38%
market implied · price 2.48 · opened 40%
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.44 · opened 27%
Wrexham
35%
market implied · price 2.66 · opened 33%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Cardiff or draw1.4365.1%-1.7 pts
Double chance Wrexham or draw1.5162.0%+2.1 pts
Double chance either team1.2872.9%-0.4 pts
Draw no bet — Cardiff1.8151.3%-3.6 pts
Draw no bet — Wrexham1.9148.7%+3.6 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2177.2%+0.9 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.7155.2%+0.9 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.6934.7%+0.9 pts
Both teams to score1.5659.7%+1.3 pts
Cardiff over 1.5 team goals2.1044.6%-0.2 pts
Wrexham over 1.5 team goals2.2142.3%+2.7 pts
Cardiff clean sheet3.7324.9%-2.2 pts
Wrexham clean sheet3.7524.8%+1.5 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.34 · 2-1 8.81 · 1-2 9.29 · 1-0 9.43 · 0-1 9.81

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-17 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.