Vicenza Virtus 3–2 Catanzaro
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.77–1.74.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.8–1.7, shots 23–13 with 9–6 on target. Vicenza Virtus got into the box far more often (20 shots inside it to 7). Vicenza Virtus's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.8 xG, 9 of 23 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Vicenza Virtus or draw | 1.37 | 68.3% | +2.3 pts |
| Double chance Catanzaro or draw | 1.52 | 61.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Vicenza Virtus | 1.70 | 54.8% | +3.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Catanzaro | 2.06 | 45.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.34 | 69.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 44.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.73 | 25.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.79 | 51.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus over 1.5 team goals | 2.45 | 38.1% | +1.7 pts |
| Catanzaro over 1.5 team goals | 2.80 | 33.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +4.7 pts |
| Catanzaro clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.62 · 1-0 7.09 · 0-1 8.00 · 0-0 8.05 · 2-1 8.84
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-21 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).