Athletic Club 1–3 Sevilla
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.03–0.00.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Athletic Club to win (54%); it finished with Sevilla to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 19% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0–0, shots 2–0 with 2–0 on target. Athletic Club held 69% of the ball. Athletic Club's finishing ran hot — 1 from 0 xG, 2 of 2 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Athletic Club or draw | 1.17 | 81.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 2.12 | 44.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Athletic Club | 1.25 | 74.2% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sevilla | 3.59 | 25.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 67.7% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 43.0% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.00 | 23.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.08 | 44.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Athletic Club over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 4.65 | 20.1% | -0.2 pts |
| Athletic Club clean sheet | 2.00 | 46.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.45 · 1-1 6.56 · 2-0 6.97 · 2-1 8.10 · 0-0 8.10
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 17:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Sevilla | 2-1 | Athletic Club |
| 17 Aug 25 | Athletic Club | 3-2 | Sevilla |