FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie B · Sat 22 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

Avellino 12 Arezzo

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What the chances were worth

Avellino
0.70
expected goals (xG)
Arezzo
1.27
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.70–1.27.

The brain read

Arezzo created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.3 and the shot count agreed (8–14, 2–2 on target). On the balance of chances, the 1–2 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Avellino
Arezzo
61%
Ball Possession
39%
8
Total Shots
14
2
Shots on Goal
2
5
Shots off Goal
7
1
Blocked Shots
5
5
Shots inside box
6
3
Shots outside box
8
0.70
Expected goals (xG)
1.27
2
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
362
Total passes
224
321
Passes accurate
185
89%
Passes %
83%
6
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
-0.08
Goals prevented
-0.08

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Avellino
42%
market implied · price 2.21 · opened 43%
Draw
30%
market implied · price 3.12 · opened 29%
Arezzo
28%
market implied · price 3.36 · opened 28%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Avellino or draw1.3072.1%+0.4 pts
Double chance Arezzo or draw1.6357.3%+0.6 pts
Double chance either team1.3370.6%-1.0 pts
Draw no bet — Avellino1.5659.4%-0.1 pts
Draw no bet — Arezzo2.2840.6%+0.1 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3768.1%-0.6 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.1843.2%-0.4 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.9423.7%-0.0 pts
Both teams to score1.8849.5%+0.2 pts
Avellino over 1.5 team goals2.3539.8%-0.1 pts
Arezzo over 1.5 team goals3.1929.1%-0.3 pts
Avellino clean sheet2.6235.5%+0.0 pts
Arezzo clean sheet3.5026.8%+0.0 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.84 · 1-0 6.50 · 0-0 7.77 · 0-1 8.33 · 2-1 8.77

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.