Benevento 1–2 Modena
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.52–0.51.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.5–0.5, shots 10–5 with 1–1 on target. Benevento got into the box far more often (6 shots inside it to 3). Modena's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.5 xG, 1 of 5 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Benevento or draw | 1.37 | 68.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Double chance Modena or draw | 1.54 | 60.8% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Benevento | 1.71 | 54.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Modena | 2.06 | 45.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 72.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.94 | 48.7% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.25 | 28.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Benevento over 1.5 team goals | 2.28 | 41.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 2.58 | 36.2% | +1.7 pts |
| Benevento clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Modena clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.87 · 1-0 7.85 · 0-1 8.81 · 0-0 8.88 · 2-1 8.94
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).