Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.63–0.49.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Middlesbrough to win (39%); it finished with Blackburn to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 31% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.5, shots 4–6 with 3–1 on target. Middlesbrough held 66% of the ball. Blackburn's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 4 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Blackburn or draw | 1.75 | 53.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance Middlesbrough or draw | 1.27 | 73.7% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.0% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Blackburn | 2.55 | 36.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Middlesbrough | 1.46 | 63.6% | +2.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 72.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.96 | 48.5% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.35 | 27.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.77 | 52.8% | +0.6 pts |
| Blackburn over 1.5 team goals | 3.10 | 30.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Middlesbrough over 1.5 team goals | 2.06 | 45.5% | +2.1 pts |
| Blackburn clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -0.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.19 · 0-1 7.16 · 1-2 8.13 · 0-0 9.39 · 0-2 9.48
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Blackburn | 0-0 | Middlesbrough |
| 26 Dec 25 | Middlesbrough | 0-0 | Blackburn |