Derby 2–2 Cardiff
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.31–1.74.
The brain read
Cardiff created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–1.7 and the shot count agreed (10–9, 5–7 on target). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Cardiff shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Derby or draw | 1.27 | 73.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance Cardiff or draw | 1.77 | 53.0% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 73.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Derby | 1.45 | 63.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cardiff | 2.56 | 36.2% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.7% | +2.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 50.6% | +2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.09 | 30.2% | +2.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.8% | +3.7 pts |
| Derby over 1.5 team goals | 1.98 | 47.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Cardiff over 1.5 team goals | 2.96 | 31.6% | +2.9 pts |
| Derby clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Cardiff clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -1.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.24 · 1-0 7.42 · 2-1 8.07 · 2-0 9.69 · 0-0 9.90
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).