Estac Troyes 0–0 Paris FC
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.38–0.80.
The brain read
The xG read 0.4–0.8 in Paris FC's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 7–8 overall and 2–0 on target went Estac Troyes's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Paris FC's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.8 xG despite 0 of 8 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement).
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Estac Troyes 4-2-3-1
- 3 Anis Ouzenadji (D)
- 4 Michel Diaz (D)
- 6 Adrien Monfray (D)
- 7 Kandet Diawara (M)
- 8 Mouhamed Diop (M)
- 10 Merwan Ifnaoui (M)
- 11 Iron Gomis (M)
- 20 Renaud Ripart (F)
- 22 Hugo Picard (M)
- 33 Patrick Beach (G)
- 44 Yvann Titi (D)
Bench: Hillel Konaté, Paolo Gozzi, Noah Donkor, Idrissa Soukouna, Alexandre Phliponeau, Antoine Mille, Karim Dermane, Christ Batola, Yacouba Kone
Paris FC 4-2-3-1
- 1 Kevin Trapp (G)
- 5 Moustapha Mbow (D)
- 6 Otávio (D)
- 7 Pablo Pagis (M)
- 9 Lassine Sinayoko (F)
- 10 Ilan Kebbal (M)
- 15 Luca Koleosho (M)
- 17 Adama Camara (D)
- 23 Rudy Matondo (M)
- 33 Pierre Lees Melou (M)
- 42 Diego Coppola (D)
Bench: Obed Nkambadio, Thibault De Smet, Samir Chergui, Hamari Traoré, Patrick Zabi, Maxime López, Vincent Marchetti, Omar Sissoko, Moses Simon
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 1.69 | 55.8% | -5.5 pts |
| Double chance Paris FC or draw | 1.34 | 70.7% | +5.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.5% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Estac Troyes | 2.31 | 40.4% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris FC | 1.57 | 59.6% | +7.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.2% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 54.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.7% | -1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.59 | 58.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 2.53 | 37.0% | -4.9 pts |
| Paris FC over 1.5 team goals | 1.95 | 48.0% | +3.0 pts |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -2.6 pts |
| Paris FC clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +2.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.41 · 1-2 8.14 · 0-1 8.54 · 2-1 10.31 · 1-0 10.98
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).