Inter 4–1 Monza
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.16–1.09.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1.1, shots 13–7 with 5–3 on target. Inter got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 6) and Inter held 71% of the ball. Inter's finishing ran hot — 4 from 1.2 xG, 5 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 4–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Inter or draw | 1.03 | 93.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Double chance Monza or draw | 4.94 | 19.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.10 | 87.4% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Inter | 1.03 | 91.4% | +1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monza | 10.97 | 8.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.9% | +2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 62.5% | +4.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 41.0% | +4.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.27 | 41.0% | +0.5 pts |
| Inter over 1.5 team goals | 1.26 | 73.9% | +4.1 pts |
| Monza over 1.5 team goals | 7.36 | 12.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Inter clean sheet | 1.62 | 57.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Monza clean sheet | 11.00 | 8.7% | -1.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 5.73 · 3-0 6.43 · 1-0 7.37 · 4-0 9.28 · 2-1 9.46
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).